Standard Chartered, Fundstrat, and major institutions declare 2026 Ethereum's breakout year. Here's the data behind the bold prediction.
Standard Chartered's head of digital assets research just declared "2026 will be the year of Ethereum, much like 2021 was." With corporate treasuries accumulating 3.8% of all ETH since June, record wallet creation, and ETF inflows returning, the institutional case for Ethereum has never been stronger.
The crypto market started 2026 with a clear signal: institutional capital is rotating into Ethereum. On the first trading day alone, Ethereum ETFs pulled in $174.5 million. By mid-January, weekly inflows hit $479 million, the first positive week since October 2025. But the headline numbers only scratch the surface of what's building beneath.
Geoffrey Kendrick, Standard Chartered's Global Head of Digital Assets Research, made waves in early January with a bold proclamation. His thesis centers on one metric: the ETH/BTC ratio. Currently sitting at multi-year lows around 0.034, Kendrick expects it to gradually return to its 2021 high of 0.08.
The price targets reflect this conviction:
Fundstrat's Tom Lee echoed similar sentiment, projecting Ethereum could reach $7,000 to $9,000 in early 2026. His long-term view is even more aggressive: $32,000 per ETH, implying a $3.8 trillion market cap.
What makes these predictions different from typical crypto hype? The data.
The most striking development is corporate accumulation. Since June 2025, corporate treasuries and spot ETFs have acquired over 5% of all Ether in circulation. BitMine Immersion Technologies alone holds 3.5% of total supply. Treasury firms purchased approximately 2.3 million ETH in just over two months. That pace nearly doubles Bitcoin's comparable accumulation during the same period.
Corporate entities now collectively hold over 6.1 million ETH, worth approximately $19 billion at current prices. Combined with ETF holdings, that figure exceeds 10 million ETH.
The largest corporate holder is BitMine Immersion Technologies, chaired by Tom Lee himself, with over 4 million ETH. Their stated goal: accumulate up to 5% of total ETH supply over time. Sharplink Gaming follows with nearly 800,000 ETH, and their CEO predicts Ethereum's total value locked could increase tenfold by year-end.
JPMorgan entered the space in December 2025, launching its MONY fund with $100 million in seed capital. BlackRock's BUIDL fund continues to lead with over $2.4 billion in assets. Robinhood is developing its own Ethereum Layer 2. The pattern is unmistakable: traditional finance is building directly on Ethereum.
Numbers can lie, but network activity rarely does. January 2026 brought record-breaking wallet creation, averaging 327,000 new wallets per day. A single-day peak hit 393,600 wallets, the highest in Ethereum's history.
Active addresses tell the same story. Daily active addresses more than doubled to over 800,000 in the first two weeks of January. By mid-month, the network recorded 1.297 million active addresses.
This wallet growth is happening while ETH trades sideways, suggesting adoption driven by actual usage rather than speculation.
The drivers are structural. Layer 2 solutions have made Ethereum accessible to everyday users. Stablecoin activity continues growing, with nearly $8 trillion in transfers settled on Ethereum in Q4 2025. The Fusaka update, released in early December, improved network efficiency across the board.
Ethereum's Layer 2 networks now process the majority of ecosystem transactions. Base leads with 46.58% market share, followed by Arbitrum at 30.86% and Optimism at 6%. Combined, these three networks represent over 75% of the Layer 2 category.
Base's rise is particularly notable. Backed by Coinbase's 100 million users, it flipped Arbitrum in TVL by late September 2025. The network has become a general-purpose consumer chain, serving as a soft entry point for non-crypto audiences.
Base flips Optimism in TVL
Base surpasses Arbitrum, becomes largest L2
Top 3 L2s process 90% of all L2 transactions
The consolidation has implications. Galaxy Digital forecasts that Layer 2 solutions could process 80% of all Ethereum transactions by 2028. Smaller, niche L2s face existential risk as liquidity gravitates toward established networks.
Ethereum's dominance in stablecoins remains unchallenged. USDT holds $102 billion on Ethereum, representing 46.3% of its total circulation. USDC adds another $49 billion on mainnet. Together, they make Ethereum the world's primary crypto settlement layer.
Real-world asset tokenization reinforces this position. Ethereum hosts 65% of total RWA value, approximately $12.5 billion. In tokenized U.S. Treasuries specifically, Ethereum commands 74% dominance.
McKinsey projects the RWA tokenization market could reach $2 trillion by 2030. Standard Chartered expects both stablecoins and tokenized RWAs to hit that milestone by 2028. Either scenario positions Ethereum as critical infrastructure.
EigenLayer's restaking protocol peaked at $25 billion in total value locked in mid-2025, representing over 85% of the restaking market. The protocol allows staked ETH to secure additional services, creating new yield opportunities beyond base staking rates.
This growth creates a double-edged sword. The $25 billion TVL makes EigenLayer a core economic layer in Ethereum's modular stack. It also concentrates systemic risk. Some analysts question whether the protocol has become "too big to fail."
Planned 2026 developments include multi-chain AVS support, extending beyond Ethereum to Solana, Cosmos, and other chains. New fee models could channel revenue back to EIGEN token holders.
Ethereum completed its Pectra upgrade in May 2025, introducing smart accounts and enhanced staking mechanics. Validators can now hold up to 2,048 ETH per validator, up from the previous 32 ETH limit.
Two major upgrades are planned for 2026:
Glamsterdam (expected Q2/Q3 2026):
Heze-Bogota (end of 2026):
The 10,000 TPS target represents a dramatic improvement from current levels of approximately 30 TPS. Combined with Layer 2 scaling, Ethereum's transaction capacity could rival traditional payment networks.
The U.S. regulatory landscape has shifted. The GENIUS Act, passed in mid-2025, established a clear stablecoin framework. The CLARITY Act, expected to pass in Q1 2026, would provide market structure guidance that institutions have long awaited.
Standard Chartered cites this regulatory clarity as a key catalyst. The combination of clear rules and resilient equity markets could push Bitcoin to new all-time highs, benefiting Ethereum as institutional capital rotates across the ecosystem.
The bullish case has real challenges. Ethereum's network activity and core usage metrics have stagnated since 2021, even as institutional interest grows. The ETH/BTC ratio at multi-year lows suggests the market hasn't fully bought the rotation thesis.
Fundstrat's internal forecasts, shared with private clients, show a more cautious near-term view. Their base case includes a potential correction to $1,800-$2,000 in the first half of 2026, with year-end targets of $4,500.
Mainnet outflows continue as users migrate to cheaper Layer 2s. January saw $688 million in outflows from mainnet to Arbitrum, Base, and Polygon. This is healthy for the ecosystem but challenges simplistic narratives about ETH value accrual.
The institutional case for Ethereum rests on several pillars: dominant infrastructure for stablecoins and RWAs, improving regulatory clarity, and structural advantages like native staking yield. Corporate treasuries appear convinced, accumulating at rates exceeding Bitcoin's comparable periods.
Whether 2026 becomes "the year of Ethereum" depends on execution. The Glamsterdam upgrade must deliver on its scaling promises. Institutional flows need to sustain beyond January's strong start. And the ETH/BTC ratio needs to break its multi-year downtrend.
The pieces are in place. Now Ethereum has to perform.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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