Cycle Potential
1x
vs. bull target
Probability
80%
Success chance
Risk Level
6.5/10
High Risk
Market Cap
$15.46B
Volume
$13.22M
Figure Private Credit represents America's leading private credit tokenization platform, offering Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) originated by Figure Technology Solutions on the Provenance blockchain. As the largest non-bank provider of home equity financing in America with over $21 billion in collective loan originations and 70% market share in private credit tokenization, Figure dominates the U.S. private lending market, serving 200,000+ households via 200+ partners. As of February 4, 2026, the FIGR_HELOC token trades at $1.02 with a market cap of $14.62 billion and 24-hour trading volume of just $229,591 (representing only 0.0016% of market cap, exposing severe liquidity constraints that have worsened dramatically from late January levels). The parent company went public on Nasdaq in September 2025 (ticker: FIGR) and hit an all-time high of $78 on January 20, 2026, but has since experienced significant volatility, currently trading at $52.31 (down 33% from peak, down 15% in past day, down 29% in past week) with market cap of $11.19 billion. Despite recent stock price weakness, nine analysts maintain a consensus 'Buy' rating with $56.89 price target, while Bernstein continues naming Figure its 2026 'best idea' stock with $72 price target (37.6% upside), forecasting revenue growth from $511 million in 2025 to $945 million by 2027 with EBITDA margins expanding from 50% to 60%. On January 14, 2026, Figure launched OPEN (On-Chain Public Equity Network), a revolutionary blockchain-native stock trading platform enabling companies to issue equity directly on-chain, bypassing DTCC intermediaries with BitGo custody and Jump Trading liquidity support. Figure filed a public registration statement in November 2025 to be the first issuer listing its own FIGR stock on OPEN. Q4 2025 preliminary results showed explosive growth: $YLDS stablecoin grew from $21 million to $328 million quarter-over-quarter following Solana integration (1,462% growth), while Democratized Prime lending marketplace expanded to $206 million outstanding from just $1 million in Q3 2025 (20,500% growth). Full Q4 2025 and full-year earnings will be reported February 26, 2026, after market close, providing potential catalyst for stock recovery if results confirm preliminary operating metrics.
Q4 2025 and full-year earnings report
Timeframe: February 26, 2026
OPEN platform first company listing and FIGR stock trading launch
Timeframe: Q1-Q2 2026
Score: 74/100 | Upside: 1x
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Figure Private Credit offers exposure to America's booming private lending market through tokenized real estate credit, targeting the $18.9 trillion U.S. home equity market. With $21B+ loan originations and 70% market share in RWA private credit tokenization, Figure leads the U.S. private lending sector. FIGR stock hit ATH of $78 on January 20, 2026 but currently trades at $52.31 (down 33%) with $11.19B market cap. Nine analysts maintain 'Buy' with $56.89 target; Bernstein names it 2026 'best idea' with $72 target, forecasting revenue growth from $511M (2025) to $945M (2027) with 50-60% EBITDA margins. The January 14, 2026 OPEN platform launch offers blockchain-native stock trading with BitGo custody and Jump Trading market-making. Q4 2025 preliminary results: $YLDS grew from $21M to $328M (1,462%), Democratized Prime from $1M to $206M (20,500%). Full Q4 earnings February 26, 2026 may catalyze stock recovery. However, the FIGR_HELOC token faces critical liquidity concerns: as of February 4, 2026, only $229,591 in 24-hour volume on $14.62B market cap (0.0016% turnover), far below the 2-5% considered healthy. The token is an illiquid security-token generating up to 8% APY from mortgage payments, not a tradeable crypto asset. Retail investors should avoid the token and consider the parent FIGR stock instead for exposure to Figure's private credit growth story.
Figure dominates tokenized private credit with 70% market share and $21B+ in collective loan originations, vastly exceeding competitors operating at $100M-$1B scale. As America's largest non-bank home equity provider serving 200,000+ households via 200+ partners, Figure combines first-mover advantage with operational excellence (5-minute approval versus 42-day industry median). The Provenance blockchain controls approximately 75% of the tokenized RWA market, positioning Figure as the market leader. Competitive moats strengthened dramatically in January 2026 with the launch of OPEN (On-Chain Public Equity Network), a blockchain-native stock trading platform that bypasses DTCC intermediaries. With BitGo custody and Jump Trading market-making, OPEN positions Figure to disrupt the $870 million tokenized stock market. Figure filed a public registration statement in November 2025 to be first issuer listing its own FIGR stock on OPEN, with frictionless two-way exchange between OPEN stock and Nasdaq equity. This represents a unique competitive advantage no other RWA tokenization player possesses. Q4 2025 results demonstrated explosive execution: $YLDS stablecoin grew from $21M to $328M (1,462% growth), Democratized Prime expanded from $1M to $206M (20,500% growth). Traditional finance credibility via Nasdaq listing initially exceeded expectations: FIGR hit all-time high of $78 on January 20, 2026, though currently at $52.31 amid broader volatility. Nine analysts maintain consensus 'Buy' rating with $56.89 price target, while Bernstein continues naming it their 2026 'best idea' stock with $72 price target, forecasting revenue growth from $511M (2025) to $945M (2027). AAA rating from S&P and Moody's for blockchain securitization (first of its kind) provides institutional legitimacy competitors lack. On January 21, 2026, the Provenance Blockchain community voted to support Figure executing Foundation directives, strengthening HASH tokenomics with network fees to realize protocol value. Primary competitors include Ondo Finance (broader RWA platform but smaller loan volumes and no equity tokenization platform), Centrifuge (CFG with $650M in structured credit but limited TradFi integration), Securitize (30% tokenization market share but focused on private equity/debt funds, no stock trading platform), and traditional tokenized treasury providers (BlackRock BUIDL, Franklin OnChain operating at different market segments). However, Figure's October 24, 2025 flash crash (81% drop to $0.19) exposed severe structural vulnerabilities that remain unresolved. As of February 4, 2026, FIGR_HELOC token volume collapsed to catastrophic $229,591 daily on $14.62B market cap (0.0016% turnover), down from $5.87M-$73.43M in late January, indicating near-complete absence of secondary market liquidity. DeFiLlama transparency concerns ($45M verified versus claimed multi-billion TVL) and centralized trading on Figure Markets platform represent ongoing competitive weaknesses. Figure's dominance stems from unmatched scale ($21B+ originations), revolutionary OPEN platform launch with first issuer listing planned, explosive Q4 2025 growth metrics, Provenance Blockchain governance control, and institutional validation (Bernstein 'best idea', consensus 'Buy' ratings). However, without fully resolving market structure fragility from October 2025 flash crash and addressing catastrophic token liquidity collapse, competitors focusing on liquid, transparent RWA products with robust redemption mechanisms could exploit vulnerabilities. The OPEN platform success will be critical differentiator: if blockchain-native stock trading gains traction with FIGR as first issuer, Figure establishes multi-decade competitive moat; if adoption falters, Figure remains vulnerable to more liquid RWA alternatives. February 26, 2026 Q4 earnings will be pivotal in demonstrating whether Figure can translate operational excellence into sustained stock performance and restore confidence in token market structure.
Figure Private Credit dominates America's private credit market with $21B+ loan originations, 70% market share, and AAA rating from S&P and Moody's for blockchain securitization (first of its kind). FIGR stock hit ATH of $78 on January 20, 2026 but declined 33% to $52.31 amid volatility. Despite weakness, nine analysts maintain 'Buy' rating with $56.89 target, and Bernstein names it their 2026 'best idea' with $72 target (37.6% upside), forecasting revenue growth from $511M to $945M by 2027 with 50-60% EBITDA margins. The January 14, 2026 OPEN platform launch represents blockchain-native stock trading with BitGo custody and Jump Trading market-making, disrupting the $870M tokenized stock market. Q4 2025 preliminary results showed explosive growth: $YLDS stablecoin grew from $21M to $328M (1,462%), Democratized Prime from $1M to $206M (20,500%). Full Q4 earnings on February 26, 2026 provide critical catalyst for stock recovery. However, the FIGR_HELOC token faces catastrophic liquidity collapse: as of February 4, 2026, only $229,591 in 24-hour volume on $14.62B market cap (0.0016% turnover). The October 2025 flash crash (81% drop to $0.19) exposed fragile market-making infrastructure that remains unaddressed. DeFiLlama verified only $45M on-chain versus claimed multi-billion TVL, noting 'vast majority of loans done in fiat.' For sophisticated institutional investors, the parent FIGR stock offers exposure to America's private lending market with strong analyst support and OPEN platform innovation. The FIGR_HELOC token itself is an illiquid security-token generating up to 8% APY from mortgage payments, not a tradeable crypto asset. Retail investors should avoid the token entirely and consider FIGR stock instead. Assessment reflects revolutionary private credit concept with proven scale and institutional validation, but market structure issues from October 2025 flash crash must be resolved and token liquidity collapse addressed.
$YLDS stablecoin expansion targeting $500M-$1B market cap
Timeframe: Q1-Q2 2026
Democratized Prime scaling to $500M+ outstanding loans
Timeframe: Q1-Q2 2026
Provenance Blockchain HASH tokenomics strengthening
Timeframe: Q1-Q2 2026
Urgent token liquidity restoration or FIGR_HELOC decommissioning
Timeframe: Q1-Q2 2026
Superstate Short Duration U.S. Government Securities Fund (USTB)
USTB
$10.98
