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Cryptocurrency
Figure Heloc (FIGR_HELOC)
Sector
RWA
Market Cap Rank
#9
Current Price
$1.00
Market Capitalization
$15.84B
STRICT Score
75/100
Cycle Potential
5.2x
vs. bull target
Probability
32%
Success chance
Risk Level
6.5/10
High Risk
Market Cap
$15.84B
Volume
$296.31M
Circulating Supply
15.84B
Total Supply
15.84B
STRICT Score Breakdown
82
S
Sustainability
75
T
Transparency
85
R
Revenue
85
I
Innovation
55
C
Community
65
T
Tokenomics
Analysis Overview
Analysis Overview
Figure Private Credit represents America's leading private credit tokenization platform, offering Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) on the Provenance blockchain. As the largest non-bank home equity provider, Figure has surpassed $21 billion in collective loan originations with 70% market share in private credit tokenization, serving 200,000+ households via 307 partners (up 25% sequentially). As of March 2, 2026, the FIGR_HELOC token trades near $1.03 with 24-hour volume of $286,519. The parent company (Nasdaq: FIGR) trades at $25.28-$25.43, down 67% from its January 20 all-time high of $78 but showing signs of stabilization. In March 2026, Figure launched ALTRUVO, the first blockchain-based auto loan platform in partnership with Agora Data, targeting the $1.6 trillion U.S. auto market with AI-powered underwriting and on-chain transparency. On February 26, 2026, Figure reported strong Q4 2025 results: net income increased 156% year-over-year to $15.1 million, Q4 revenue reached $159.9 million (up 90.7%), and marketplace volume hit $2.7 billion (up 130.8%). Figure closed a historic $150 million secondary offering on February 18, 2026 as the world's first fully on-chain public equity (FGRD token), with moomoo becoming the first U.S. brokerage to offer retail access on February 26. The Board authorized a $200 million share repurchase program. $YLDS stablecoin is nearing $500 million (up from $328M in Q4), and Democratized Prime reached $206 million with nearly 10x quarter-over-quarter growth. Nine analysts maintain Buy consensus with $58.62 average target (131% upside). CEO Mike Cagney calls 2026 "the year of the first lien" as Figure diversifies beyond HELOCs.
Investment Thesis
Strengths
8
1Market dominance: America's largest non-bank provider of home equity financing with $21B+ collective loan originations, 70% market share in RWA private credit tokenization, serving 200,000+ households via 307 partners (up 25% sequentially Q4 2025)
2ALTRUVO launch (March 2026): First blockchain-based auto loan platform with Agora Data targets $1.6 trillion U.S. auto market; AI-powered underwriting meets on-chain transparency; Figure making equity investment in Agora; critical diversification beyond HELOC concentration
3Strong Q4 2025 financial results (Feb 26): Net income +156% YoY to $15.1M; Q4 revenue $159.9M (+90.7% YoY); marketplace volume $2.7B (+130.8%); 54% Connect penetration driving capital-light model; $1.2B cash balance; CEO calls 2026 "the year of the first lien"
4
Upcoming Catalysts
5
ALTRUVO auto loan platform onboarding and first $100M in originations
Q1-Q2 2026
High Impact
Analysis Overview
Figure Private Credit represents America's leading private credit tokenization platform, offering Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOCs) on the Provenance blockchain. As the largest non-bank home equity provider, Figure has surpassed $21 billion in collective loan originations with 70% market share in…
Strengths
8
1Market dominance: America's largest non-bank provider of home equity financing with $21B+ collective loan originations, 70% market share in RWA private credit tokenization, serving 200,000+ households via 307 partners (up 25% sequentially Q4 2025)
2ALTRUVO launch (March 2026): First blockchain-based auto loan platform with Agora Data targets $1.6 trillion U.S. auto market; AI-powered underwriting meets on-chain transparency; Figure making equity investment in Agora; critical diversification beyond HELOC concentration
3Strong Q4 2025 financial results (Feb 26): Net income +156% YoY to $15.1M; Q4 revenue $159.9M (+90.7% YoY); marketplace volume $2.7B (+130.8%); 54% Connect penetration driving capital-light model; $1.2B cash balance; CEO calls 2026 "the year of the first lien"
4
Figure Private Credit offers exposure to America's booming private lending market through tokenized real estate credit and auto loans, targeting the $18.9 trillion U.S. home equity market plus the $1.6 trillion auto market. With $21B+ loan originations and 70% market share in RWA private credit tokenization, Figure leads the U.S. private lending sector with 307 partners (up 25% sequentially) and 54% Connect penetration driving a capital-light model. In March 2026, Figure launched ALTRUVO with Agora Data, the first blockchain-based auto loan platform combining AI-powered underwriting with on-chain transparency, marking critical diversification beyond HELOCs. FIGR stock trades at $25.28-$25.43 as of March 1-2, 2026, down 67% from its January 20 all-time high of $78 but showing signs of stabilization. On February 26, 2026, Figure reported Q4 2025 results: net income increased 156% year-over-year to $15.1 million, Q4 revenue reached $159.9 million (up 90.7%), and marketplace volume hit $2.7 billion (up 130.8%). Figure closed a historic $150 million OPEN secondary offering on February 18, 2026 (FGRD token), the world's first fully on-chain public equity with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as leads. moomoo became the first U.S. brokerage offering retail access on February 26, validating the blockchain equity model with real consumer adoption. The Board authorized a $200 million buyback program (3.3% of shares). $YLDS stablecoin is nearing $500 million (up from $328M in Q4), and Democratized Prime reached $206 million with nearly 10x quarter-over-quarter growth, demonstrating real DeFi product-market fit. Provenance Blockchain hosts $12.5 billion in tokenized RWAs with AAA ratings from S&P and Moody's. Nine analysts maintain Buy consensus with $58.62-$59.50 average target (131-134% upside), and Bernstein named Figure its "2026 best idea." CEO Mike Cagney calls 2026 "the year of the first lien" as Figure executes aggressive diversification from HELOCs into auto loans, blockchain equity, stablecoins, and on-chain financing. Retail investors face a critical opportunity: bet on the blockchain financial infrastructure revolution at a 67% discount with multiple catalysts (ALTRUVO execution, FGRD liquidity growth, $YLDS scaling, buyback support), or recognize that market skepticism may persist despite operational excellence.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making investment decisions. Cryptocurrency investments are volatile and carry significant risk.
Figure Private Credit offers exposure to America's booming private lending market through tokenized real estate credit and auto loans, targeting the $18.9 trillion U.S. home equity market plus the $1.6 trillion auto market. With $21B+ loan originations and 70% market share in RWA private credit tokenization, Figure leads the U.S. private lending sector with 307 partners (up 25% sequentially) and 54% Connect penetration driving a capital-light model. In March 2026, Figure launched ALTRUVO with Agora Data, the first blockchain-based auto loan platform combining AI-powered underwriting with on-chain transparency, marking critical diversification beyond HELOCs. FIGR stock trades at $25.28-$25.43 as of March 1-2, 2026, down 67% from its January 20 all-time high of $78 but showing signs of stabilization. On February 26, 2026, Figure reported Q4 2025 results: net income increased 156% year-over-year to $15.1 million, Q4 revenue reached $159.9 million (up 90.7%), and marketplace volume hit $2.7 billion (up 130.8%). Figure closed a historic $150 million OPEN secondary offering on February 18, 2026 (FGRD token), the world's first fully on-chain public equity with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as leads. moomoo became the first U.S. brokerage offering retail access on February 26, validating the blockchain equity model with real consumer adoption. The Board authorized a $200 million buyback program (3.3% of shares). $YLDS stablecoin is nearing $500 million (up from $328M in Q4), and Democratized Prime reached $206 million with nearly 10x quarter-over-quarter growth, demonstrating real DeFi product-market fit. Provenance Blockchain hosts $12.5 billion in tokenized RWAs with AAA ratings from S&P and Moody's. Nine analysts maintain Buy consensus with $58.62-$59.50 average target (131-134% upside), and Bernstein named Figure its "2026 best idea." CEO Mike Cagney calls 2026 "the year of the first lien" as Figure executes aggressive diversification from HELOCs into auto loans, blockchain equity, stablecoins, and on-chain financing. Retail investors face a critical opportunity: bet on the blockchain financial infrastructure revolution at a 67% discount with multiple catalysts (ALTRUVO execution, FGRD liquidity growth, $YLDS scaling, buyback support), or recognize that market skepticism may persist despite operational excellence.
Competitive Position
Figure dominates tokenized private credit with 70% market share and $21B+ in collective loan originations, vastly exceeding competitors operating at $100M-$1B scale. As America's largest non-bank home equity provider serving 200,000+ households via 307 partners (up 25% sequentially), Figure combines first-mover advantage with operational excellence (5-minute approval versus 42-day industry median) and 54% Connect penetration driving a capital-light model. Provenance blockchain hosts $12.5 billion in tokenized RWAs with AAA ratings from S&P and Moody's for blockchain securitization. In March 2026, Figure launched ALTRUVO with Agora Data, the first blockchain-based auto loan platform targeting the $1.6 trillion U.S. auto market, marking critical diversification beyond HELOC concentration. On February 18, 2026, Figure closed a $150 million secondary offering of blockchain-native equity (FGRD token) on its OPEN platform with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as leads, becoming the first company to settle public equity trades fully on-chain bypassing DTCC. moomoo became the first U.S. brokerage offering retail access on February 26, 2026, validating the blockchain equity model with real consumer adoption. Q4 2025 financial results (announced February 26, 2026) demonstrate operational strength: net income increased 156% year-over-year to $15.1 million, Q4 revenue reached $159.9 million (up 90.7%), marketplace volume hit $2.7 billion (up 130.8%), and cash position stands at $1.2 billion. The Board authorized a $200 million share repurchase program. Primary competitors include Ondo Finance (broader RWA platform, $464M USDY stablecoin but no equity trading or auto loans), Centrifuge (CFG, $650M structured credit, limited TradFi integration), Securitize (30% tokenization market share, private equity focus, no public stock trading or auto lending), and traditional tokenized treasury providers (BlackRock BUIDL, Franklin OnChain). None has launched blockchain-native public equity trading, auto loan tokenization, or matched Figure's HELOC origination scale. Figure's $YLDS stablecoin is nearing $500M (20x growth since Q3) and Democratized Prime reached $206M with nearly 10x quarter-over-quarter growth, demonstrating real DeFi product-market fit beyond HELOC core business. However, competitive vulnerabilities persist: FIGR stock trades at $25.28-$25.43 as of March 1-2, 2026, down 67% from its January all-time high of $78, despite strong financial performance, ALTRUVO launch, FGRD retail access, and $200M buyback authorization. DeFiLlama verified only $45M on-chain versus claimed multi-billion TVL; FIGR_HELOC volume shows only $286K in active trading, indicating continued market structure fragility. Nine analysts maintain Buy consensus with $58.62-$59.50 average target (131-134% upside), and Bernstein named Figure its "2026 best idea." CEO Mike Cagney calls 2026 "the year of the first lien" as Figure executes aggressive diversification. The strategic challenge: Figure may dominate operationally across multiple RWA verticals (HELOC, auto loans, blockchain equity, stablecoins, on-chain financing) but must prove it can convert leadership into sustained investor confidence and stock price recovery.
Conclusion
Figure Private Credit dominates America's private credit market with $21B+ loan originations, 70% market share, 307 partners (up 25% sequentially), and AAA-rated blockchain securitization on Provenance blockchain ($12.5B in RWAs). In March 2026, Figure launched ALTRUVO with Agora Data, the first blockchain-based auto loan platform targeting the $1.6 trillion U.S. auto market with AI-powered underwriting, marking critical diversification beyond HELOC concentration. On February 26, 2026, Figure reported strong Q4 2025 results: net income increased 156% year-over-year to $15.1 million, Q4 revenue reached $159.9 million (up 90.7%), marketplace volume hit $2.7 billion (up 130.8%), and cash position stands at $1.2 billion. Figure achieved a historic milestone on February 18, 2026 by closing a $150 million secondary offering as the world's first fully on-chain public equity (FGRD token) with Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley as leads, followed by moomoo becoming the first U.S. brokerage offering retail access on February 26. The Board authorized a $200 million share repurchase program. FIGR stock trades at $25.28-$25.43 as of March 1-2, 2026, down 67% from its January all-time high of $78 but showing signs of stabilization. $YLDS stablecoin is nearing $500 million (20x growth since Q3, up from $328M in Q4), and Democratized Prime reached $206 million with nearly 10x quarter-over-quarter growth, demonstrating real DeFi product-market fit. Nine analysts maintain Buy consensus with $58.62-$59.50 average target (131-134% upside), and Bernstein named Figure its "2026 best idea." CEO Mike Cagney calls 2026 "the year of the first lien" as Figure executes aggressive diversification across HELOC, auto loans, blockchain equity, stablecoins, and on-chain financing. The FIGR_HELOC token shows only $286K in active trading volume, indicating continued market structure fragility. Investors face multiple catalysts (ALTRUVO execution, FGRD liquidity growth, $YLDS scaling to $1B, $200M buyback) versus persistent market skepticism about blockchain financial infrastructure viability. The critical question: whether the 67% discount represents a historic buying opportunity in a revolutionary multi-vertical RWA platform, or a warning that operational excellence across multiple businesses cannot overcome investor doubt about unproven business model adoption.
FGRD blockchain equity live with retail access: moomoo (NASDAQ:FUTU) became first U.S. brokerage offering retail access on February 26, 2026; $150M OPEN secondary closed February 18; SEC-registered on-chain equity with T+0 settlement, 24/7 trading, peer-to-peer stock lending
5$200M buyback authorization: Board approved February 26, 2026 (3.3% of shares outstanding, expires February 2027); stock stable at $25.28-$25.43 with potential for buyback price support
6Analyst consensus remains Buy: Nine analysts with $58.62-$59.50 average price target (131-134% upside from $25.28 as of March 2, 2026); Bernstein raised revenue forecasts 17-21% after Q4 results and named Figure "2026 best idea"
7$YLDS and Democratized Prime scaling: $YLDS stablecoin nearing $500M (20x growth since Q3, up from $328M in Q4); Democratized Prime at $206M with nearly 10x QoQ growth; demonstrating real DeFi product-market fit beyond HELOC core business
8Institutional-grade infrastructure: Provenance Blockchain hosts $12.5B in tokenized RWAs; AAA ratings from S&P and Moody's for blockchain securitization; operational efficiency (5-minute approval vs. 42-day industry median)
Risks
8
1Stock price discount persists: FIGR trading at $25.28-$25.43 as of March 1-2, 2026, down 67% from January 20 all-time high of $78, despite strong Q4 earnings (net income +156%), $1.2B cash, ALTRUVO launch, and $200M buyback authorization
2ALTRUVO execution risk: March 2026 auto loan platform onboarding with Agora Data enters $1.6 trillion U.S. auto market dominated by banks and institutional players; product diversification is critical but unproven at scale; Figure making equity investment in unproven fintech partner
3OPEN platform liquidity uncertainty: FGRD trading live with moomoo as first retail broker (Feb 26), but secondary market volume, liquidity depth, and sustained retail adoption remain unproven; blockchain equity model faces structural investor skepticism despite institutional backing
4Flash crash history unresolved: October 2025 token crash wiped $10B+ in market value (81% drop to $0.19); FIGR_HELOC volume shows only $286K in active trading, indicating continued market structure fragility
5Data transparency disputes: DeFiLlama verified only $45M on-chain assets versus Figure's claimed multi-billion TVL, noting 'vast majority of loans done in fiat' with minimal verifiable on-chain payment flows
6Regulatory uncertainty: Unsettled regulatory status of digital assets could trigger securities registration requirements; OPEN platform ATS faces novel SEC oversight as first blockchain-native equity trading system
7Material weaknesses: SEC filing disclosed material weaknesses in internal controls, creating ongoing governance risk even as operational performance improves
8Revenue concentration transitioning: Heavy reliance on HELOC (~75% of revenue) now diversifying with ALTRUVO auto loans, YLDS stablecoin (nearing $500M), and Democratized Prime ($206M), but diversification success is unproven
$200M share buyback program execution and stock price stabilization
Q1-Q2 2026
High Impact
FGRD trading volume growth and additional OPEN platform company listings
Q2-Q3 2026
High Impact
$YLDS stablecoin expansion toward $1B market cap
Q2-Q3 2026
Medium Impact
Q1 2026 earnings and FY2026 guidance
Late April 2026
High Impact
FGRD blockchain equity live with retail access: moomoo (NASDAQ:FUTU) became first U.S. brokerage offering retail access on February 26, 2026; $150M OPEN secondary closed February 18; SEC-registered on-chain equity with T+0 settlement, 24/7 trading, peer-to-peer stock lending
5$200M buyback authorization: Board approved February 26, 2026 (3.3% of shares outstanding, expires February 2027); stock stable at $25.28-$25.43 with potential for buyback price support
6Analyst consensus remains Buy: Nine analysts with $58.62-$59.50 average price target (131-134% upside from $25.28 as of March 2, 2026); Bernstein raised revenue forecasts 17-21% after Q4 results and named Figure "2026 best idea"
7$YLDS and Democratized Prime scaling: $YLDS stablecoin nearing $500M (20x growth since Q3, up from $328M in Q4); Democratized Prime at $206M with nearly 10x QoQ growth; demonstrating real DeFi product-market fit beyond HELOC core business
8Institutional-grade infrastructure: Provenance Blockchain hosts $12.5B in tokenized RWAs; AAA ratings from S&P and Moody's for blockchain securitization; operational efficiency (5-minute approval vs. 42-day industry median)
Risks
8
1Stock price discount persists: FIGR trading at $25.28-$25.43 as of March 1-2, 2026, down 67% from January 20 all-time high of $78, despite strong Q4 earnings (net income +156%), $1.2B cash, ALTRUVO launch, and $200M buyback authorization
2ALTRUVO execution risk: March 2026 auto loan platform onboarding with Agora Data enters $1.6 trillion U.S. auto market dominated by banks and institutional players; product diversification is critical but unproven at scale; Figure making equity investment in unproven fintech partner
3OPEN platform liquidity uncertainty: FGRD trading live with moomoo as first retail broker (Feb 26), but secondary market volume, liquidity depth, and sustained retail adoption remain unproven; blockchain equity model faces structural investor skepticism despite institutional backing
4Flash crash history unresolved: October 2025 token crash wiped $10B+ in market value (81% drop to $0.19); FIGR_HELOC volume shows only $286K in active trading, indicating continued market structure fragility
5Data transparency disputes: DeFiLlama verified only $45M on-chain assets versus Figure's claimed multi-billion TVL, noting 'vast majority of loans done in fiat' with minimal verifiable on-chain payment flows
6Regulatory uncertainty: Unsettled regulatory status of digital assets could trigger securities registration requirements; OPEN platform ATS faces novel SEC oversight as first blockchain-native equity trading system
7Material weaknesses: SEC filing disclosed material weaknesses in internal controls, creating ongoing governance risk even as operational performance improves
8Revenue concentration transitioning: Heavy reliance on HELOC (~75% of revenue) now diversifying with ALTRUVO auto loans, YLDS stablecoin (nearing $500M), and Democratized Prime ($206M), but diversification success is unproven