Stacks
$0.2475
STRICT-Score
Max. Potenzial
8x
Potenzieller Ertrag
Wahrscheinlichkeit
65%
Erfolgschance
Risikoniveau
4/10
Mittleres Risiko
Marktkapitalisierung
$450.18M
Volumen
$9.51M
STRICT-Score Aufschlüsselung
Unser proprietäres Bewertungssystem evaluiert Projekte anhand von 6 Schlüsseldimensionen.
Analyseübersicht
Analyseübersicht
Stacks (STX) is trading at approximately $0.28-$0.42 as of December 2025, with a market cap of $509-$750 million and a circulating supply of 1.81 billion tokens, ranking between #82-#91 on CoinGecko. The project serves as the leading Bitcoin Layer 2 solution, enabling smart contracts and DeFi applications on Bitcoin. Following the October 2024 Nakamoto upgrade and December 2024 sBTC launch, the network achieved 5-second block times and 100x faster finality. Despite recent price weakness (down 43% over 90 days), DeFi TVL has surged 97.6% in H1 2025 to $164.2 million, with over 5,000 BTC (~$315 million) locked in sBTC.
Investitionsthese
Stacks represents the most mature infrastructure for bringing smart contracts and DeFi to Bitcoin without modifying the base layer protocol. The successful Nakamoto upgrade reduced block times from 6 minutes to 5 seconds and gas fees from $6.65 to $0.25, achieving performance comparable to mainstream Layer 2s. The launch of sBTC, a 1:1 Bitcoin-backed asset with institutional custody support from BitGo, Hex Trust, Copper, and ForDeFi, positions Stacks to unlock significant Bitcoin liquidity for DeFi. With Bitcoin DeFi narratives strengthening and institutional adoption accelerating, Stacks is strategically positioned to capture value from the $1+ trillion Bitcoin market seeking yield and utility.
Wettbewerbsposition
Stacks holds the strongest position among Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions as the most mature and battle-tested platform, with the Nakamoto upgrade and sBTC launch representing years of development. While competitors like Rootstock, Lightning Network, and newer entrants offer alternative approaches, Stacks differentiates through its Proof of Transfer consensus mechanism that uniquely settles transactions on Bitcoin L1, providing superior security guarantees. The institutional custody partnerships (BitGo, Hex Trust) and growing DeFi ecosystem ($164M TVL) create network effects that newer competitors lack. However, Stacks faces increasing competition from well-funded Bitcoin L2 projects launching in 2024-2025, and must execute on the Satoshi Upgrades roadmap to defend market leadership. The project's success depends on converting technical advantages into sustained adoption before competitors gain traction.
Fazit
Stacks represents a compelling asymmetric bet on Bitcoin DeFi with significant technical achievements (Nakamoto upgrade, sBTC launch) but current market undervaluation. The 43% price decline despite 98% DeFi TVL growth creates an accumulation opportunity for investors with 6-12 month horizons. Key catalysts in Q2-Q4 2025 (Satoshi Upgrades, stablecoin integration, $1B TVL target) provide multiple re-rating opportunities. However, execution risks and competitive pressures warrant measured position sizing.
Stärken
- Nakamoto upgrade delivered 100x faster finality (5 seconds vs 6 minutes) and 96% lower gas fees ($0.25 vs $6.65), achieving competitive Layer 2 performance
- sBTC holds approximately 5,000 BTC (~$315 million) with institutional custody integrations from BitGo, Hex Trust, Copper, and ForDeFi supporting institutional adoption
- DeFi TVL increased 97.6% to $164.2 million in H1 2025, demonstrating strong ecosystem growth and developer activity
- Proof of Transfer (PoX) consensus uniquely leverages Bitcoin security while enabling smart contracts, creating a defensible moat as the original Bitcoin Layer 2
- Clarity smart contract language provides decidability and security advantages with Clarity 4 launch (November 2025) expanding capabilities
Risiken
- Token price declined 43.47% over past 90 days, indicating market skepticism despite technical achievements and potential overhead from unlocks
- Competition intensifying from newer Bitcoin Layer 2 solutions with 10+ projects launching in 2024-2025, fragmenting BTCFi liquidity
- sBTC adoption requires successful institutional custody integration and self-custody features (Satoshi Upgrades) still under development for Q2-Q3 2025
- Market cap of $509-750 million represents modest valuation relative to peers, suggesting limited current market conviction despite roadmap
- Dependence on Bitcoin network security creates indirect exposure to Bitcoin consensus risks and potential reorganization issues
Kommende Katalysatoren
Satoshi Upgrades implementation including self-custodial sBTC and Bitcoin post-conditions
Zeitrahmen: Q2-Q3 2025
Tier-1 stablecoin integration (USDT/USDC) and sBTC multichain bridges via Axelar and Wormhole
Zeitrahmen: Q4 2025
$1 billion DeFi TVL milestone target with institutional BTC capital deployment
Zeitrahmen: H2 2025
10x throughput boost and new Clarity VM in WASM implementation
Zeitrahmen: Q3 2025
Preisziele
Continued downtrend with failed institutional adoption, competitive pressure from newer Bitcoin L2s, and broader crypto bear market. Limited sBTC traction and TVL stagnation could drive price toward support levels established in previous cycles.
Successful implementation of Satoshi Upgrades with moderate sBTC adoption, achieving $500-750M TVL by year-end. Stable institutional interest and continued DeFi growth restore market confidence, returning price to pre-decline levels with 2-2.5x upside from current levels.
Breakout Bitcoin DeFi cycle with Stacks capturing dominant share of BTCFi narrative. Rapid achievement of $1B+ TVL milestone, major institutional adoption through custody partnerships, successful stablecoin integration, and broader crypto bull market driving 5-7x returns from current prices.
STRICT-Score
Bewertung: 78/100 | Potenzial: 8x
Verwandte im gleichen Sektor - Layer 2
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Haftungsausschluss: Diese Analyse dient nur zu Informationszwecken und sollte nicht als Finanzberatung betrachtet werden. Führen Sie immer Ihre eigene Recherche durch, bevor Sie Anlageentscheidungen treffen. Investitionen in Kryptowährungen sind volatil und mit erheblichen Risiken verbunden.