STRICT-Score
Max. Potenzial
7.4x
Potenzieller Ertrag
Wahrscheinlichkeit
65%
Erfolgschance
Risikoniveau
5/10
Mittleres Risiko
Marktkapitalisierung
$278.99M
Volumen
$5.21M
STRICT-Score Aufschlüsselung
Unser proprietäres Bewertungssystem evaluiert Projekte anhand von 6 Schlüsseldimensionen.
Analyseübersicht
Analyseübersicht
Helium operates the world's largest decentralized wireless network, combining IoT and 5G mobile infrastructure through crypto-economic incentives. The network completed its migration to Solana in April 2023, reducing transaction fees by 98% and increasing throughput from 10 TPS to 1,600+ TPS. As of December 2025, Helium Mobile has surpassed 577,000 subscribers with 1.16 million daily active users, leveraging partnerships with T-Mobile, AT&T, and Telefónica to provide nationwide coverage. The network operates 115,750 mobile hotspots and 42,640 IoT hotspots, having offloaded over 10 petabytes of data since launch while maintaining a deflationary token model through 100% revenue burns.
Investitionsthese
Helium represents a rare DePIN project with proven product-market fit and genuine revenue generation. The network generates $1.5M monthly from mobile subscriptions at $30/month unlimited plans, burning 100% of revenue directly into HNT tokens. The August 2025 halving cut annual emissions from 15M to 7.5M HNT, creating structural supply deficits alongside growing demand. With subscriber growth accelerating 48.3% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2025 and daily data transfers reaching 32.4 TB, Helium demonstrates scalable unit economics. The April 2025 SEC dismissal with prejudice eliminated regulatory overhang, while the Solana migration unlocked composability with DeFi protocols at transaction costs of $0.01 versus $0.30 on the legacy chain. The launch of Helium Plus in January 2025 enables Wi-Fi network participation without hardware purchases, expanding the addressable market. Trading at $1.81 versus a $54.88 all-time high represents 96.4% downside already realized, with catalysts including Brazil's 40,000 hotspot deployment targeting 100M users and continued carrier offload partnerships.
Wettbewerbsposition
Helium maintains first-mover advantage in decentralized wireless with the largest LoRaWAN network globally at 250,000+ gateways and proven mobile traction exceeding 577,000 subscribers. The network's strategic T-Mobile partnership provides superior coverage versus competitors attempting independent buildouts, while Solana migration enables DeFi composability unavailable to centralized alternatives. However, traditional MVNOs like Mint Mobile offer comparable pricing without crypto friction, and competing DePIN projects like IOTX and Peaq target similar narratives. Helium's defensibility stems from network effects where coverage density attracts subscribers who generate revenue burns creating scarcity, but sustainability depends on maintaining subscriber growth rates above 30% annually to offset operational costs and competitive threats.
Fazit
Helium demonstrates rare DePIN fundamentals with proven revenue generation, deflationary tokenomics, and accelerating user adoption, but faces profitability questions and severe technical damage from 96% drawdown. The August 2025 halving combined with 100% revenue burns creates structural supply deficit, while 577,000 mobile subscribers prove product-market fit beyond speculative narratives. Current $1.81 pricing reflects deep pessimism with asymmetric risk-reward if subscriber growth sustains above 30% quarterly and Brazil expansion executes. Recommended for patient accumulation below $2.00 with 12-18 month horizon, sizing positions for 5-7x upside potential while acknowledging execution risks around profitability timeline and competitive pressures from traditional MVNOs.
Stärken
- Explosive mobile subscriber growth from 311,200 in Q2 2025 to 577,000 by December 2025, representing 85.4% growth in six months with 1.16 million daily active users demonstrating strong product-market fit
- Deflationary token economics with 100% of $1.5M monthly subscription revenue burning HNT tokens, while August 2025 halving reduced annual emissions from 15M to 7.5M HNT creating structural supply deficit
- Proven infrastructure scale with 115,750 mobile hotspots and 42,640 IoT hotspots delivering 10+ petabytes of cumulative data, with Q3 2025 daily data traffic averaging 32.4 TB up 57.3% quarter-over-quarter
- Strategic carrier partnerships enabling 99% LTE and 97.8% 5G coverage of Americans through T-Mobile fallback, plus data offload agreements with AT&T, Telefónica Movistar, and Google Orion generating carrier revenue
- Successful Solana migration reducing transaction fees by 98% from $0.30 to $0.01 while increasing throughput from 10 TPS to 1,600+ TPS and enabling compressed NFT hotspot minting at $0.50-$1.00 versus traditional NFT costs
Risiken
- Severe price deterioration with HNT trading at $1.81 in December 2025, down 96.4% from $54.88 all-time high, with technical indicators showing Strong Sell signals across 1-day and 1-week timeframes
- Profitability uncertainty as $1.5M monthly revenue may not cover operational costs including T-Mobile partnership fees, network infrastructure, and customer acquisition costs with no disclosed path to protocol profitability
- Competitive pressure from traditional MVNOs like Mint Mobile and Google Fi offering similar $20-30/month unlimited plans without crypto complexity, while DePIN competitors IOTX and DIMO compete for narrative premium
- Token concentration risk from 342,000 legacy hotspot holders pre-Solana migration potentially creating sustained selling pressure despite deflationary burn mechanisms and halving reductions
- Regulatory exposure operations subject Helium to FCC oversight and potential telecom regulations that could restrict token burn mechanisms or impose compliance costs affecting economics
Kommende Katalysatoren
Brazil Mambo WiFi partnership deploying 40,000 hotspots targeting 100 million users
Zeitrahmen: Q1-Q2 2026
Continued carrier offload partnerships with additional major telecom providers following AT&T and Telefónica successes
Zeitrahmen: Ongoing through 2026
Helium Plus adoption enabling Wi-Fi network participation without dedicated hardware purchases
Zeitrahmen: Q1 2026
Preisziele
Subscriber growth stalls below 20% quarter-over-quarter, carrier partnerships fail to expand beyond current AT&T and T-Mobile agreements, and MOBILE token delisting from Coinbase creates negative sentiment spillover. Revenue burns insufficient to offset selling pressure from legacy hotspot holders, with Brazil expansion delayed beyond Q2 2026.
Subscriber base reaches 850,000 by Q2 2026 maintaining 40% growth rates, Brazil deployment adds 25,000 active hotspots by year-end, and monthly revenue burns increase to $2.5M. Additional carrier partnership announced driving data offload to 50 TB daily, with halving effects creating 25% supply deficit versus demand.
Mobile subscribers exceed 1.5M by Q4 2026 driven by aggressive international expansion beyond Brazil, Helium Plus adoption adds 75,000 Wi-Fi hotspots increasing coverage density 40%, and major carrier partnership with Verizon or European operator announced. Monthly burns reach $5M with daily data traffic exceeding 100 TB, creating sustained deflationary pressure post-halving.
STRICT-Score
Bewertung: 67/100 | Potenzial: 7.4x
Verwandte im gleichen Sektor - DePIN
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Haftungsausschluss: Diese Analyse dient nur zu Informationszwecken und sollte nicht als Finanzberatung betrachtet werden. Führen Sie immer Ihre eigene Recherche durch, bevor Sie Anlageentscheidungen treffen. Investitionen in Kryptowährungen sind volatil und mit erheblichen Risiken verbunden.