Bitcoin Needs 6% Rally in 72 Hours to Avoid Historic Red Year
Bitcoin must surge above $93,374 by December 31 or become the first post-halving year to close in the red.
With just 72 hours remaining in 2025, Bitcoin faces the prospect of becoming the first cryptocurrency to close a post-halving year in negative territory.
What Happened
Bitcoin opened 2025 at approximately $93,374 and currently trades around $89,000, leaving the cryptocurrency roughly 4.7% below its yearly open price. To avoid closing the year in the red, BTC must rally at least 6.24% before the December 31 close.
The challenge is compounded by persistent resistance at the $90,000 level. Bitcoin briefly touched $90,200 during Asian trading on December 29 before being rejected yet again. This marks another failed attempt in a series of rejections at the $90,000 level since mid-December.
Why It Matters
Every post-halving year in Bitcoin's history, including 2012, 2016, and 2020, has concluded with significant gains. A red 2025 would break this pattern for the first time, potentially signaling a shift in the asset's cyclical behavior.
Technical indicators suggest neutral momentum. The RSI sits at approximately 45, insufficient to drive sustained upward price action without a significant catalyst. Analyst Nic Puckrin noted that the yearly candle will only turn green if Bitcoin reclaims its January 1 opening price by year-end.
What to Watch
Key resistance remains at $93,000 to $94,000, while support sits between $83,000 and $88,000. Some analysts suggest a genuine "super cycle" may not begin until capital rotates from precious metals into digital assets, potentially around 2027. For now, the next 72 hours will determine whether Bitcoin preserves its post-halving streak or enters 2026 with a broken historical pattern.
Key Takeaways
This is a developing situation as markets enter the final trading days of 2025. The outcome will have implications for how traders interpret Bitcoin's four-year halving cycle going forward.
