Bitcoin's 50-day moving average crossed below the 200-day average on the 3-day chart for the first time since 2022, as oil prices surged over 35% amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
Bitcoin is flashing a rare bearish signal as geopolitical turmoil between the U.S., Israel, and Iran sends shockwaves through global risk assets, dragging BTC below $68,000 with a looming death cross on the 3-day chart.
Bitcoin dropped to a low near $65,700 on March 9, rebounding slightly to around $67,200 at the time of writing. The sell-off follows a week of escalating U.S.-Iran tensions that effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, disrupting roughly 20% of global oil supply.
WTI crude surged over 35% this week to above $115 per barrel, its biggest weekly gain on record. Asian equity markets reacted sharply, with Japan's Nikkei 225 falling over 5% and South Korea's Kospi dropping as much as 8% intraday before closing down roughly 6%. The total crypto market cap slipped to $2.28 trillion.
On the technical side, Bitcoin's 50-day simple moving average crossed below the 200-day average on the 3-day timeframe, forming a death cross for the first time since 2022. In previous instances during 2018 and 2022, this pattern preceded average drawdowns of 45-52%.
The convergence of geopolitical risk and a bearish technical signal marks a rare double headwind for Bitcoin. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index dropped to 12, deep in "extreme fear" territory, typically associated with capitulation and late-stage selling pressure.
Rising oil prices threaten to reignite inflation concerns. U.S. bond yields are climbing, with the 10-year Treasury at 4.21% and the 30-year at 4.84%. Higher inflation expectations make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, removing a key catalyst that Bitcoin bulls have relied on. The March 11 CPI release and the Fed meeting later this month will be critical for setting the near-term direction.
Resistance sits at the $69,000-$70,000 zone, where BTC has failed to break through multiple times. Support remains in the mid-$65,000 range, and a break below could accelerate selling pressure. G7 countries are reportedly considering a coordinated release of 300-400 million barrels from strategic petroleum reserves, which could ease oil prices and stabilize broader markets. Polymarket places U.S. recession odds above 30%, a sharp increase from earlier this year.
Bitcoin faces its most challenging technical and macro backdrop since the 2022 bear market. The death cross pattern historically precedes extended drawdowns, though the current geopolitical situation remains fluid. Traders should monitor the CPI data on March 11 and any diplomatic developments closely, as either could shift the market narrative rapidly.
Wall Street giant Citigroup projects Bitcoin could reach $143,000 within 12 months, citing ETF demand and regulatory tailwinds as key catalysts.
The largest US bank is assessing spot and derivatives trading services as regulatory clarity enables traditional finance to deepen crypto involvement.
All 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw positive inflows on March 2, totaling $458M as BTC rebounds from February lows.
Disclaimer: News content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research.
