Polymarket traders are pricing $75,000 as the most likely Bitcoin outcome for February, with over $10M in trading volume on the contract.
Prediction markets are converging on $75,000 as Bitcoin's most likely price by the end of February, signaling cautious optimism after last week's flash crash to $60,000.
Polymarket's "Bitcoin price at end of February" contract has attracted over $10.2 million in trading volume, with the $75,000 level carrying the highest implied probability at 54%. The contract makes it the most favored outcome among traders betting on Bitcoin's near-term trajectory.
On Kalshi, a separate prediction platform, the odds of Bitcoin reclaiming $80,000 within the next three weeks are trading at 24%, with approximately $347,000 in volume. Longer-term contracts tell a more subdued story. The probability of Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by June has dropped to 21% on both platforms, down from 40% during the 2025 rally to all-time highs above $126,000.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $70,800 after a volatile week that saw it crash to $60,062 on February 5 before rebounding above $71,000 on February 6, a move of more than 11% in a single day.
Prediction markets have become a significant gauge of crypto sentiment since Polymarket's rapid growth in 2025. The current pricing suggests the market expects consolidation rather than a sharp directional move, with $75,000 acting as a ceiling for the near term.
The downside risk remains actively priced in. A return to $60,000 carries a 42% probability, and a deeper slide to $55,000 is assigned a 23% chance. This asymmetry reflects lingering caution after the February 5 crash triggered $775 million in liquidations and record realized losses of $3.2 billion, a figure surpassing the FTX collapse.
Institutional behavior is adding complexity. BlackRock's IBIT ETF saw $10 billion in daily trading volume during the crash, and the firm followed up with a $230 million inflow on February 6, indicating institutional interest at sub-$70,000 levels.
Traders are focused on whether Bitcoin can sustain the $70,000 support level through mid-February. A break below could shift prediction market odds toward bearish scenarios. On the upside, a sustained push above $72,000 would likely trigger a re-pricing toward the $75,000-$80,000 range. Macro catalysts including the mid-February government shutdown deadline and ongoing stablecoin regulation discussions could inject fresh volatility.
Prediction market data points to a market in recovery mode but far from confident. The consensus view is gradual stabilization toward $75,000 rather than a V-shaped rebound to previous highs.
Wall Street giant Citigroup projects Bitcoin could reach $143,000 within 12 months, citing ETF demand and regulatory tailwinds as key catalysts.
The largest US bank is assessing spot and derivatives trading services as regulatory clarity enables traditional finance to deepen crypto involvement.
BTC stages dramatic 11% recovery after nearly breaching $60K, while market sentiment remains at extreme fear levels.
Disclaimer: News content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research.
