Citigroup cut its 12-month BTC target from $143K to $112K and ETH from $4,304 to $3,175, citing stalled U.S. market-structure legislation.
Wall Street giant Citigroup has sharply lowered its cryptocurrency price forecasts, citing legislative gridlock in Washington and softer network activity.
In a research note published March 17, Citigroup cut its 12-month bitcoin price target to $112,000 from $143,000, a 22% reduction. The bank also trimmed its ethereum forecast to $3,175 from $4,304, a 26% cut.
The downgrade centers on the CLARITY Act, a U.S. crypto market-structure bill that has stalled in the Senate. Disagreements over stablecoin provisions have narrowed the window for passage in 2026, according to Citi analysts. The bank also reduced its bitcoin ETF demand assumptions to $10 billion over the next 12 months, down from previous estimates, and set ether ETF inflows at $2.5 billion.
Bitcoin currently trades around $73,700, while ethereum sits near $2,330, both well below the revised targets.
Citigroup is one of the largest banks globally, and its crypto research carries weight with institutional allocators. The downgrade signals that Wall Street sees a longer timeline for the regulatory clarity many investors have been counting on to unlock the next wave of institutional demand.
The timing is notable. Just days earlier, the SEC and CFTC signed a Memorandum of Understanding on March 11 classifying both BTC and ETH as digital commodities under CFTC jurisdiction. While that move resolved one regulatory question, the broader legislative framework remains incomplete without the CLARITY Act.
Citi outlined a bear-case scenario where bitcoin could drop to $58,000 and ethereum to $1,198 under recessionary conditions. On the upside, a bull case projects BTC at $165,000 and ETH at $4,488 if legislation advances and ETF inflows accelerate. The Senate schedule for the CLARITY Act in Q2 2026 will be the key catalyst to monitor.
The Citigroup downgrade adds to a cautious mood in crypto markets, where sentiment indicators remain firmly in fear territory. Regulatory progress remains the primary swing factor for institutional flows and price discovery in the months ahead.
Wall Street giant Citigroup projects Bitcoin could reach $143,000 within 12 months, citing ETF demand and regulatory tailwinds as key catalysts.
The largest US bank is assessing spot and derivatives trading services as regulatory clarity enables traditional finance to deepen crypto involvement.
All 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw positive inflows on March 2, totaling $458M as BTC rebounds from February lows.
Disclaimer: News content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research.
