Compass Point and Bernstein analysts say crypto bear cycle is in its final innings, with bitcoin likely to bottom between $60,000 and $68,000.
After a brutal weekend that saw $2.5 billion in liquidations, Wall Street analysts are now calling the crypto bear market's final innings.
Bitcoin staged a recovery above $78,000 on Monday after plunging below $75,000 over the weekend, erasing roughly $800 billion in market value since its October peak. The drop triggered approximately $2.5 billion in liquidations across Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP from January 31 to February 1, marking the 10th-biggest single-day liquidation event on record according to Coinglass data.
The selloff was driven by a confluence of factors: Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance, escalating U.S.-Iran tensions, and cascading forced liquidations. A hotter-than-expected PPI report added to the pressure, pushing commodities and crypto lower together.
Despite the carnage, major Wall Street analysts are turning constructive. Compass Point analysts said the crypto bear market is in its "final innings," with bitcoin likely to bottom between $60,000 and $68,000, absent a broader U.S. equity bear market. They point to strong long-term holder support around $65,000 but warn the $70,000 to $80,000 range is an "air pocket" with limited structural support.
Bernstein echoes this sentiment, expecting a reversal within the first half of 2026. The firm argues institutional flows, U.S. policy alignment, and sovereign-asset considerations could set the stage for "the most consequential" next bitcoin cycle. Wintermute analyst Jasper de Maere noted this is "organic deleveraging rather than structural crisis."
With bitcoin hovering around $78,000, traders are watching the $60,000 to $68,000 range as the key support zone. A break below $60,000 would likely require a broader U.S. equity bear market, according to Compass Point. Ethereum, which fell to around $2,350 after shedding nearly 24% over the past month, and Solana at roughly $105 after a 20% decline, remain under pressure but could benefit from any bitcoin stabilization.
This is a developing story. While analysts see the bear cycle nearing its end, market conditions remain volatile, and the situation may evolve.
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Disclaimer: News content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research.
