The Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting with markets pricing a near-certain rate hold, while spot Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $2.12 billion over nine consecutive days of inflows.
The Federal Open Market Committee begins its two-day April meeting today with Bitcoin hovering near $77,000 and spot BTC ETFs riding a nine-day inflow streak worth $2.12 billion, setting up a critical 48 hours for crypto markets.
The FOMC convenes on April 28-29 with the Fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. CME FedWatch data shows roughly a 98% probability that rates will remain unchanged. Bitcoin is trading around $77,000 after pulling back from near $80,000, while Ethereum sits near $2,300.
Despite the pullback, institutional demand remains strong. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows from April 14 through April 24, accumulating $2.12 billion. The largest single-day inflow hit $663.91 million on April 17. Weekly flows have climbed steadily: $786 million, $996 million, and $823 million over the three most recent weeks. April's total inflows stand at roughly $2.43 billion, a sharp reversal from the outflows that dominated early 2026.
The tension between strong ETF demand and the Fed's policy stance creates an unusual setup. Bitcoin has declined within 48 hours of seven of the last eight FOMC decisions, regardless of whether the Fed cut, held, or shifted its tone. That pattern suggests traders consistently de-risk around Fed events, only to re-enter afterward.
The macro backdrop adds complexity. March CPI came in at 3.3%, the highest since 2024, and elevated oil prices are keeping inflation projections sticky at 2.7%. Some Fed members have openly discussed rate hikes as a live option, though futures markets assign near-zero probability to that outcome this week. A hawkish tone in Chair Powell's press conference could still pressure risk assets, while any acknowledgment of softening economic conditions could push Bitcoin back toward $80,000.
The rate decision arrives Wednesday afternoon, followed by the press conference. Markets will parse the statement for any changes to the phrase "further progress" on inflation, which would signal a shift in the Fed's timeline for cuts. ETF flow data for the remainder of this week will reveal whether institutional buyers hold firm through the volatility or pause to await clarity.
This is a developing story. The rate decision and press conference on April 29 will determine whether Bitcoin's ETF-driven rally can extend beyond $80,000 or whether the Fed's hawkish posture triggers another post-FOMC pullback.
Wall Street giant Citigroup projects Bitcoin could reach $143,000 within 12 months, citing ETF demand and regulatory tailwinds as key catalysts.
Michael Saylor's Strategy reported a $14.46 billion unrealized loss on its bitcoin holdings in Q1 2026, then purchased another $330 million in BTC days later.
The largest US bank is assessing spot and derivatives trading services as regulatory clarity enables traditional finance to deepen crypto involvement.
Disclaimer: News content is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Market conditions can change rapidly. Always conduct your own research.
