FOMC Meets as Bitcoin ETFs Log $2.1B in Nine-Day Inflow Streak

The FOMC convenes on April 28-29 with the Fed funds rate at 3.50-3.75%. CME FedWatch data shows roughly a 98% probability that rates will remain unchanged. Bitcoin is trading around $77,000 after pulling back from near $80,000, while Ethereum sits near $2,300.

Despite the pullback, institutional demand remains strong. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded nine consecutive days of net inflows from April 14 through April 24, accumulating $2.12 billion. The largest single-day inflow hit $663.91 million on April 17. Weekly flows have climbed steadily: $786 million, $996 million, and $823 million over the three most recent weeks. April's total inflows stand at roughly $2.43 billion, a sharp reversal from the outflows that dominated early 2026.

The tension between strong ETF demand and the Fed's policy stance creates an unusual setup. Bitcoin has declined within 48 hours of seven of the last eight FOMC decisions, regardless of whether the Fed cut, held, or shifted its tone. That pattern suggests traders consistently de-risk around Fed events, only to re-enter afterward.

The macro backdrop adds complexity. March CPI came in at 3.3%, the highest since 2024, and elevated oil prices are keeping inflation projections sticky at 2.7%. Some Fed members have openly discussed rate hikes as a live option, though futures markets assign near-zero probability to that outcome this week. A hawkish tone in Chair Powell's press conference could still pressure risk assets, while any acknowledgment of softening economic conditions could push Bitcoin back toward $80,000.

The rate decision arrives Wednesday afternoon, followed by the press conference. Markets will parse the statement for any changes to the phrase "further progress" on inflation, which would signal a shift in the Fed's timeline for cuts. ETF flow data for the remainder of this week will reveal whether institutional buyers hold firm through the volatility or pause to await clarity.