Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer turns bearish on Bitcoin, citing the four-year cycle. We analyze the data and what it means for 2026 investors.
Coira Research
AI Research Collective
A longtime Bitcoin bull has changed his tune. Fidelity's Director of Global Macro, Jurrien Timmer, now warns that Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle suggests a potential "crypto winter" ahead, with support levels between $65,000 and $75,000.
Jurrien Timmer has been one of the most respected voices in institutional Bitcoin analysis. His work at Fidelity helped bridge the gap between traditional finance and cryptocurrency markets. So when he turned bearish in December 2025, the crypto world took notice.
The timing is significant. Bitcoin reached an all-time high near $126,000 in October 2025. Since then, the price has fallen to around $88,000, representing a 30% drawdown from the peak. While Bitcoin remains positive on a multi-year basis, it's now down approximately 7% year-to-date while the S&P 500 is up 15%.
Bitcoin has historically followed a roughly four-year cycle tied to the halving events. Each halving reduces the new supply of Bitcoin by 50%, creating a supply shock that has historically preceded major price rallies.
First halving. Bitcoin rose from $12 to $1,150 over the following year.
Second halving. Bitcoin climbed from $650 to nearly $20,000 by late 2017.
Third halving. Bitcoin surged from $8,700 to $69,000 by November 2021.
Fourth halving. Bitcoin rose to $126,000 by October 2025.
The pattern suggests that the 12-18 months following a halving tend to be bullish, followed by a correction phase. If history repeats, we may be entering that correction phase now.
Timmer's analysis points to several concerning factors beyond the cycle itself.
Diminishing Returns: Each cycle has produced smaller percentage gains than the previous one. The first cycle saw Bitcoin rise nearly 100x. The second was about 30x. The third was roughly 8x. This fourth cycle has delivered approximately 3x from the halving date.
Extended Duration: The current cycle has already lasted longer than previous ones. Timmer suggests this could indicate market maturation, but also increases the risk of a more prolonged correction.
Macro Headwinds: Unlike previous cycles, this one faces potential headwinds from central bank policy. The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates remains uncertain, and liquidity conditions are tighter than in 2020-2021.
Timmer identifies $65,000-$75,000 as potential technical support levels based on historical retracement patterns. These are analytical observations, not trading recommendations. A break below $65,000 could signal a deeper correction.
Not everyone agrees with the bearish outlook. Citigroup recently published a research note with a base case target of $143,000 for Bitcoin by the end of 2026. Their analysis emphasizes different factors.
ETF Momentum: Despite recent outflows, Bitcoin spot ETFs have accumulated over $25 billion in 2025. BlackRock's IBIT alone holds significant institutional capital that represents long-term positioning.
Regulatory Clarity: The potential passage of the CLARITY Act and other regulatory frameworks could unlock new institutional capital. Many allocators have been waiting on the sidelines for regulatory certainty.
Supply Dynamics: Only 21 million Bitcoin will ever exist. As more coins move into long-term storage and ETFs, the available float continues to shrink.
Note: The following scenarios are illustrative analyst estimates and should not be considered price predictions or guarantees. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
| Scenario | Price Target | Key Assumption |
|---|---|---|
| Bear Case | $78,500 | Extended risk-off, regulatory delays |
| Base Case | $143,000 | ETF flows continue, regulatory progress |
| Bull Case | $189,000+ | Major institutional adoption wave |
Looking at on-chain metrics, the picture is mixed. Long-term holders continue to accumulate, which historically signals conviction. However, short-term holders have been selling into strength, a pattern often seen at cycle peaks.
The realized price, which represents the average cost basis of all Bitcoin, sits around $31,000. This means the market is still in significant profit, which can create selling pressure during corrections.
The Fear and Greed Index hitting 21, deep in "extreme fear" territory, is notable. Historically, such readings have often preceded reversals. But they can also persist during extended downtrends.
For investors, this divergence of opinion between Fidelity and Citigroup highlights the importance of having a plan.
Dollar-Cost Averaging: Rather than trying to time the bottom, consistent buying over time can reduce the emotional burden of market timing.
Position Sizing: Given the uncertainty, maintaining appropriate position sizes allows investors to add to positions if prices fall further without being forced to sell.
Focus on Fundamentals: The STRICT Score methodology evaluates assets based on fundamentals rather than price momentum. Bitcoin scores highly on sustainability and community metrics, though revenue generation remains not applicable for a store-of-value asset.
The best time to prepare for volatility is before it happens. Review your portfolio allocation and ensure you're comfortable with your exposure regardless of which scenario plays out.
It's worth remembering that every Bitcoin cycle has felt different at the time. The 2017 peak was followed by an 84% drawdown. The 2021 peak saw a 77% correction. Those who sold in panic often regretted it when prices recovered.
The question isn't whether Bitcoin will be volatile. It will. The question is whether the fundamental thesis remains intact. Network security continues to increase. Institutional infrastructure has never been stronger. Regulatory frameworks are taking shape globally.
Several key events could determine which thesis proves correct.
Q1 2026: Watch for ETF flow data. Sustained inflows would support the bullish case. Persistent outflows would validate Timmer's concerns.
H1 2026: Regulatory developments in the US will be crucial. The outcome of pending legislation could significantly impact institutional appetite.
Full Year: The four-year cycle would suggest a potential trough somewhere in late 2026 if historical patterns hold. However, the institutionalization of Bitcoin may be changing these dynamics.
Fidelity's Jurrien Timmer raises valid concerns about Bitcoin's cyclical patterns. His track record and analytical rigor deserve serious consideration. At the same time, Citigroup's bullish outlook reflects the growing institutional infrastructure that didn't exist in previous cycles.
The truth likely lies somewhere between these extremes. Bitcoin remains a volatile asset that can move 30-50% in either direction with little warning. Position sizing and time horizon matter more than perfect timing.
For long-term investors, the four-year cycle is a feature, not a bug. Each cycle has ultimately resolved higher, rewarding patient holders. Whether that pattern continues depends on execution of the fundamental thesis: Bitcoin as digital gold in an increasingly uncertain monetary environment.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risk. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
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