Sei
$0.1072
Score STRICT
Potentiel max
5.1x
Rendement potentiel
Probabilité
55%
Chance de succès
Niveau de risque
7/10
Risque élevé
Capitalisation
$695.16M
Volume
$28.26M
Détail du score STRICT
Notre système de notation propriétaire évalue les projets selon 6 dimensions clés.
Aperçu de l'analyse
Aperçu de l'analyse
Sei Network is a high-speed Layer 1 blockchain optimized for trading and DeFi applications, achieving 400ms finality and supporting up to 200,000 TPS with its recent Giga upgrade. As the leading EVM chain by active users with 12.9 million monthly active users (20% of global on-chain users), Sei combines the speed of Solana with Ethereum's developer-friendly EVM compatibility. The network has processed over 4 billion transactions across 80+ million wallets since its 2023 mainnet launch, while maintaining a 99.5% transaction success rate. Currently trading at $0.13 with a market cap of $804 million, SEI sits 88% below its March 2024 ATH of $1.14.
Thèse d'investissement
Sei represents a calculated bet on specialized blockchain infrastructure for high-frequency trading and DeFi. The network's institutional momentum is exceptional—Binance validator participation, Robinhood listing, Canary Capital's proposed SEI ETF with staking, and Wyoming's consideration for state-backed stablecoin infrastructure place it alongside Ethereum and Solana. The Giga upgrade's 200,000 TPS capacity and 400ms finality provide technical advantages over most competitors, while native order-matching engine differentiation targets the $10+ trillion DeFi TAM. However, the 88% drawdown from ATH and 6.37B/10B circulating supply (64% unlocked) present both opportunity and risk. With TVL growing from $85M to $542M in 16 months and 47% trading volume increase in Q4 2025, Sei demonstrates product-market fit in Web3 gaming (8.8M wallets, 74% monthly growth) and stablecoin infrastructure ($277M supply). The 7x cycle potential against a crowded Layer 1 market requires exceptional execution and ecosystem development.
Position concurrentielle
Sei occupies a specialized niche speed-optimized trading-focused Layer 1, competing directly with Solana for high-throughput DeFi applications while offering EVM compatibility that Solana lacks. The network's 99.5% transaction success rate significantly outperforms Solana (66.2%) and Ethereum (97.4%), providing technical credibility. However, Sei ranks #68 by market cap ($804M) versus Solana's top-5 position, facing the classic innovator's dilemma—better technology but inferior network effects. The 12.9M monthly active users (leading EVM chain) and dominance in Web3 gaming demonstrate product-market fit in specific verticals, yet the network must expand beyond gaming to justify valuations. Against emerging Layer 1s (Sui, Aptos), Sei benefits from earlier mainnet launch (2023) and institutional traction, but risks token unlock dilution (36% supply remaining) versus competitors. The dual EVM/CosmWasm architecture provides developer optionality but adds complexity versus single-VM competitors.
Conclusion
Sei Network presents asymmetric risk-reward for investors with high Layer 1 conviction and 18-24 month time horizons. The institutional validation (Binance, potential ETF, Wyoming consideration) and technical superiority (99.5% success rate, 200K TPS) justify accumulation during the 88% drawdown, but only for risk-tolerant portfolios. The 7x cycle potential requires capturing the decentralized trading narrative while fending off Solana and emerging competitors. Accumulate on weakness below $0.12, but limit exposure to sub-5% of crypto portfolio given execution risks and token unlock overhang through 2031.
Points forts
- Market-leading active users: 12.9M monthly active users (20% of global on-chain activity) with 99.5% transaction success rate versus Ethereum
- s 66.2%
- Institutional validation surge: Binance validator node (Nov 2025), Canary Capital SEI ETF filing (Nov 2025), Robinhood listing (Oct 2025), Wyoming state stablecoin consideration alongside Ethereum/Solana
- Technical performance superiority: 400ms finality, 200,000 TPS capacity post-Giga upgrade, native order-matching engine providing structural advantages for DEX applications
- Explosive ecosystem traction: TVL growth from $85M (Aug 2024) to $542M (Dec 2025), #1 in Web3 gaming with 8.8M wallets (74% monthly growth), 442M transactions in 2025 alone
- Strategic partnerships: Kalshi integration (Dec 2025), Etherscan expansion (Sept 2025), Xiaomi wallet pre-installation across key regions expanding retail accessibility
Risques
- Severe price depreciation: Down 88% from $1.14 ATH (March 2024), trading at $0.13 with bearish technical indicators (21 bearish vs 7 bullish signals, RSI 44.10 neutral)
- Token unlock pressure: 3.63B tokens (36% of supply) remaining for unlock through 2031, creating persistent selling pressure from VC/team vestings in competitive Layer 1 environment
- Extreme Layer 1 competition: Facing Ethereum
- s speed reputation, and emerging challengers (Sui, Aptos, Berachain) with deeper liquidity and institutional backing
- Ecosystem maturity gap: Despite user growth, young ecosystem (2-year mainnet) lacks depth of dApps, infrastructure tools, and developer grants compared to established chains risking network effects failure
- High-risk tokenomics profile: 56/100 tokenomics score reflecting suboptimal distribution mechanics, no ongoing inflation creating long-term sustainability questions for validator incentives
Catalyseurs à venir
Canary Capital SEI ETF SEC approval decision
Échéance: Q1-Q2 2026
Wyoming stablecoin (WYST) blockchain selection and pilot launch
Échéance: Q2 2026
Giga upgrade full rollout and 200K TPS demonstration
Échéance: Q1 2026
Major DeFi protocol migrations leveraging native order-matching engine
Échéance: Q2-Q3 2026
Xiaomi wallet integration across global smartphone shipments
Échéance: Ongoing 2026
Objectifs de prix
Continued Layer 1 market consolidation, failed ETF approval, sustained token unlock pressure, and loss of market share to Solana/Base drive -38% downside to 2023 support levels
Successful Giga upgrade adoption, moderate ecosystem growth, ETF approval delayed but eventual success, and maintained top-10 transaction ranking support 92% recovery to mid-2024 levels
Wyoming stablecoin selection, major DeFi protocol migrations, ETF approval with institutional inflows, and 7x cycle potential realization from Web3 gaming/trading dominance narrative capture 75% of ATH recovery
Score STRICT
Score: 67/100 | Potentiel: 5.1x
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Avertissement: Cette analyse est fournie à titre informatif uniquement et ne doit pas être considérée comme un conseil financier. Faites toujours vos propres recherches avant de prendre des décisions d'investissement. Les investissements en cryptomonnaies sont volatils et comportent des risques significatifs.