Starknet
$0.0789
Score STRICT
Potentiel max
8x
Rendement potentiel
Probabilité
60%
Chance de succès
Niveau de risque
6/10
Risque moyen
Capitalisation
$391.75M
Volume
$40.05M
Détail du score STRICT
Notre système de notation propriétaire évalue les projets selon 6 dimensions clés.
Aperçu de l'analyse
Aperçu de l'analyse
Starknet (STRK) is trading at $0.102 with a market cap of $492 million, ranking #91 on CoinMarketCap. As an Ethereum Layer 2 scaling solution using zkSTARK technology, Starknet achieved 127 TPS sustained throughput and became the first ZK-rollup to reach Stage 1 decentralization. With 4.8B tokens circulating of 10B max supply and $629M TVL, the network faces near-term pressure from monthly unlocks releasing 127M tokens ($13.2M) through March 2027. Transaction fees average just $0.002 with sub-2-second confirmation times. STRK is down 33% over the past month amid unlock events, though staking participation has increased 23% as users lock tokens for governance and network rewards.
Thèse d'investissement
Starknet presents a high-risk, high-reward Layer 2 investment thesis centered on superior zkSTARK technology and technical performance. The network achieved record-breaking 127 TPS sustained throughput (3x competitors) and ultra-low $0.002 transaction fees while pioneering Stage 1 decentralization among ZK-rollups. Bitcoin staking integration and the upcoming Stwo prover (Q2 2025) position Starknet for significant cloud cost reductions and broader adoption. However, the investment case is challenged by aggressive token unlocks (30% supply by March 2027), a non-EVM Cairo programming language limiting developer growth, and substantially lower TVL ($629M vs Arbitrum's $16.6B). Recent price performance (-33% monthly, -6.6% weekly) reflects unlock pressure, though 23% staking growth suggests conviction among long-term holders. Success depends on converting technological advantages into ecosystem growth before unlock dilution erodes value.
Position concurrentielle
Starknet occupies a technical leadership position among ZK-rollups but lags significantly in market adoption compared to optimistic rollups. It leads all Layer 2s in sustained TPS (127 vs ~60 for Arbitrum, ~130 for Optimism) and achieved the critical Stage 1 decentralization milestone before competitors. The zkSTARK approach offers quantum resistance and eliminates trusted setup requirements that plague zkSNARK alternatives like zkSync Era. However, TVL of $629M represents just 4% of Arbitrum's dominance and 10% of Base's retail-focused growth. The Cairo programming language, while optimized for ZK computation, creates a significant adoption barrier—zkSync Era's EVM compatibility strategy has captured similar TVL ($569M) with lower technical friction. Extended protocol controls 40% of Starknet TVL, indicating concentration risk. The network competes in the premium ZK-rollup segment prioritizing security and finality over the liquidity-rich optimistic rollup ecosystem. Success requires converting technological advantages (proven with record TPS) into developer and user growth before token dilution and competition erode the value proposition.
Conclusion
Starknet demonstrates exceptional Layer 2 technology with record TPS, pioneering decentralization, and quantum-resistant zkSTARKs, but faces significant market headwinds from token unlocks, limited TVL growth, and Cairo adoption challenges. The 127 TPS achievement and Stage 1 decentralization validate the technical thesis, while $0.002 transaction fees and sub-2-second confirmations offer clear user benefits. However, 30% supply dilution by March 2027, recent network outages, and 96% TVL deficit versus Arbitrum suggest meaningful execution risks. Current valuation at $0.10 ($492M market cap) appears fair given the technology-adoption gap. HOLD recommendation reflects waiting for clearer evidence that technological superiority translates to ecosystem growth, particularly TVL exceeding $1B and developer activity approaching zkSync levels. Upside exists if Bitcoin staking and Stwo prover become differentiators, but near-term unlock pressure and competitive dynamics warrant caution. Better entry may emerge post-unlock cycle in late 2027.
Points forts
- Record-breaking 127 TPS sustained throughput with 992 peak TPS, nearly triple closest ZK-rollup competitor
- First ZK-rollup to achieve Stage 1 decentralization milestone, demonstrating credible neutrality
- Ultra-low transaction costs averaging $0.002 with sub-2-second confirmation times via v0.13.4 upgrades
- Bitcoin staking integration bringing $170M staked across validators, expanding beyond Ethereum ecosystem
- Quantum-resistant zkSTARK technology with transparent setup (no trusted ceremony required)
Risques
- Aggressive unlock schedule releasing 127M STRK ($13.2M) monthly through March 2027, totaling 30% supply dilution
- Major network outage in September 2025 from sequencer failure raised reliability concerns vs established L2s
- Cairo-only development environment creates steep learning curve, limiting developer adoption vs EVM-compatible chains
- Significantly lower TVL ($629M) compared to Arbitrum ($16.6B), Base ($10B), and Optimism ($6B)
- Recent price decline of 33% over past month correlating with token unlock events
Catalyseurs à venir
Stwo prover integration with SHARP
Échéance: Q2 2025
Staking v2 upgrade with block attestation
Échéance: Q1 2025
Bitcoin staking expansion beyond $170M
Échéance: Ongoing 2025
v0.14.0 release with 2-second block times
Échéance: Q1 2025
Objectifs de prix
Continued unlock pressure through 2027 combined with failure to grow TVL materially beyond current $629M. Network outages damage reputation relative to more stable Arbitrum/Optimism. Cairo adoption remains limited, ceding developer mindshare to EVM-compatible zkSync and optimistic rollups. Market cap contracts to $300M as ZK-rollup narrative loses momentum to established Layer 2 winners.
Starknet maintains technological leadership with Stwo prover deployment and sustained TPS advantages. TVL grows to $1.5B+ driven by Extended protocol expansion and Bitcoin staking reaching $500M+. Developer adoption improves modestly via Cairo tooling enhancements. Token unlocks absorbed by staking growth (currently 23% increase) and institutional accumulation. Market recognizes Stage 1 decentralization premium, valuing at $900M market cap.
Breakthrough ecosystem growth drives TVL to $3B+ as major DeFi protocols bridge to Starknet for cost savings. Bitcoin staking becomes killer feature with $2B+ TVL creating unique positioning. Stwo prover and v0.14.0 upgrades deliver 50%+ cost reductions, attracting high-volume applications. Cairo gains traction as ZK-native development standard. Ethereum L2 market expands 3x with Starknet capturing 5-7% share. Token unlocks viewed as healthy distribution. $2.2B market cap reflecting ZK-rollup leadership premium.
Score STRICT
Score: 72/100 | Potentiel: 8x
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Avertissement: Cette analyse est fournie à titre informatif uniquement et ne doit pas être considérée comme un conseil financier. Faites toujours vos propres recherches avant de prendre des décisions d'investissement. Les investissements en cryptomonnaies sont volatils et comportent des risques significatifs.