Score STRICT
Potentiel max
6.5x
Rendement potentiel
Probabilité
65%
Chance de succès
Niveau de risque
3/10
Risque faible
Capitalisation
$6.79B
Volume
$76.83M
Détail du score STRICT
Notre système de notation propriétaire évalue les projets selon 6 dimensions clés.
Aperçu de l'analyse
Aperçu de l'analyse
Stellar is a decentralized payment infrastructure designed for fast, low-cost cross-border transactions. Built to connect financial institutions, payment systems, and individuals, Stellar facilitates seamless currency exchange and remittances across 180+ countries through partnerships with MoneyGram, PayPal, Visa, and IBM. With Protocol 23 deployed in September 2025, Stellar's Soroban smart contract platform now targets 5,000 TPS while maintaining sub-cent transaction fees. The network's $515M real-world asset ecosystem includes Franklin Templeton's U.S. Treasury tokenization and enterprise partnerships with Wirex (7M+ users), positioning XLM for the $700B remittance market.
Thèse d'investissement
Stellar's 2025 trajectory centers on enterprise adoption translating to sustained network usage. The MoneyGram integration enables cash-to-USDC conversions at thousands of locations globally, while Wirex's Visa settlement processes stablecoin payments for 7M+ users directly on Stellar rails, bypassing traditional banking infrastructure. PayPal's mid-year integration increased transaction volume and liquidity significantly. Protocol 23's parallel transaction processing upgrades position Stellar for institutional-grade throughput. With a fixed 50B supply (32.31B circulating post-2019 burn), deflationary 1% transaction burns, and no new token creation, supply dynamics favor long-term holders scales. The upcoming SWIFT ISO 20022 cutover (November 22, 2025) and expanding RWA partnerships create multiple growth vectors. Current price of $0.24 represents significant discount from $0.94 all-time high, offering asymmetric risk-reward for infrastructure plays in the payment sector.
Position concurrentielle
Competitive position analysis pending.
Conclusion
Stellar presents a compelling infrastructure play with underappreciated enterprise adoption. While technicals show weakness, fundamental catalysts (SWIFT cutover, Protocol 23, PayPal/MoneyGram volume growth) create asymmetric upside. Current $0.24 price offers 45% discount to base case $0.35 target with limited downside given established partnerships. Deflationary tokenomics and institutional-grade partnerships position XLM for sustained growth infrastructure adoption accelerates through 2025-2026.
Points forts
- Enterprise partnerships with MoneyGram (180+ countries), PayPal, Visa/Wirex (7M users), IBM, and Franklin Templeton drive real-world payment volume
- Protocol 23 upgrade delivers 5,000 TPS capacity with parallel processing while maintaining sub-cent fees, competitive with traditional payment rails
- Deflationary tokenomics: fixed 50B supply with 1% transaction burn mechanism and no inflation since October 2019 burn of 55B tokens
- $515M real-world asset ecosystem with U.S. Treasury tokenization and SWIFT ISO 20022 compatibility positions for institutional adoption
- 7.73B market cap with proven 8+ year track record and transparent Stellar Development Foundation governance (90/100 transparency score)
Risques
- Bearish 2025 technical forecast from CoinCodex despite fundamentals; price down 17.36% in last month with RSI at oversold 32.20
- Intense competition from Ripple (XRP) for payment corridors, Polygon/Solana for throughput, and established SWIFT infrastructure limiting displacement potential
- 7.29% annual circulation increase releases reserves could create selling pressure despite fixed max supply
- Regulatory uncertainty around stablecoin settlements and cross-border payment licensing across 180+ jurisdictions
- Revenue model (70/100 STRICT score) remains dependent on network fees; unclear path to protocol sustainability at current transaction volumes
Catalyseurs à venir
SWIFT ISO 20022 cutover
Échéance: Q4 2024
Protocol 23 optimization
Échéance: Q1 2025
MoneyGram/PayPal partnership maturation
Échéance: Q2 2025
RWA ecosystem expansion
Échéance: 2025-2026
Objectifs de prix
Continued bearish technicals with market consolidation; maintains current support levels through 2025 winter
Enterprise partnership adoption accelerates network usage; SWIFT integration drives institutional interest; aligns with moderate analyst consensus
PayPal/MoneyGram integrations reach critical mass with 10x transaction growth; RWA ecosystem surpasses $2B; retail FOMO from enterprise validation
Score STRICT
Score: 83/100 | Potentiel: 6.5x
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Avertissement: Cette analyse est fournie à titre informatif uniquement et ne doit pas être considérée comme un conseil financier. Faites toujours vos propres recherches avant de prendre des décisions d'investissement. Les investissements en cryptomonnaies sont volatils et comportent des risques significatifs.