BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says he would not invest even $1 in Bitcoin right now, waiting for the Federal Reserve to resume monetary expansion.
Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, declared on March 11 that he would not put even a single dollar into Bitcoin under current conditions, despite maintaining a long-term price target of $250,000.
Hayes outlined his stance in a series of public comments, stating he is waiting for the U.S. Federal Reserve to resume monetary expansion before adding to his Bitcoin position. His reasoning centers on net liquidity: until the central bank shifts from tightening to printing, Bitcoin remains vulnerable to drawdowns alongside equities.
The BitMEX founder warned that a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict could push Bitcoin below $60,000, triggering cascading liquidations. "Bitcoin performs like a high-beta tech stock," Hayes said. "It will sell off as well." He added that the longer the conflict continues, the higher the likelihood the Fed will be forced to print money to fund the war effort, and that moment is when he plans to buy.
Hayes is one of the most-followed macro voices in crypto, and his positioning often signals broader institutional sentiment. His comments arrive while the Fear and Greed Index sits at 13, firmly in "extreme fear" territory, with Bitcoin trading around $70,000. The market is caught between resilient ETF inflows ($93.14 billion in spot Bitcoin ETF AUM as of March 11) and geopolitical uncertainty from the Iran situation and rising oil prices.
His framework is simple: Bitcoin follows net liquidity. When the Fed prints, Bitcoin rises. When liquidity contracts, Bitcoin falls. February CPI data released today showed inflation at 2.4% annually, but analysts warn that surging gasoline prices from the Hormuz crisis will push March readings higher, potentially delaying any Fed pivot.
Hayes's trigger is clear: Fed money printing. The next FOMC meeting on March 17-18 will be closely watched for any shift in tone. If inflation stays contained and geopolitical pressures mount, the probability of emergency liquidity measures rises. Traders should monitor the Fed balance sheet, reverse repo facility, and Treasury General Account for early signals of the liquidity shift Hayes is waiting for.
Hayes's stance reflects a growing divide between long-term Bitcoin conviction and short-term caution driven by macro conditions. His "wait for the printer" strategy offers a clear framework, but timing the Fed remains one of the hardest trades in finance.
Wall Street giant Citigroup projects Bitcoin could reach $143,000 within 12 months, citing ETF demand and regulatory tailwinds as key catalysts.
The largest US bank is assessing spot and derivatives trading services as regulatory clarity enables traditional finance to deepen crypto involvement.
All 12 U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw positive inflows on March 2, totaling $458M as BTC rebounds from February lows.
Avertissement: Le contenu des actualités est fourni à titre informatif uniquement et ne doit pas être considéré comme un conseil financier. Les conditions du marché peuvent changer rapidement. Effectuez toujours vos propres recherches.
