Citigroup cut its 12-month Bitcoin target from $143K to $112K and Ethereum from $4,304 to $3,175, citing stalled U.S. legislation and weaker ETF inflow expectations.
Citigroup trimmed its 12-month Bitcoin price target from $143,000 to $112,000 on March 17, marking a $31,000 reduction driven by slower U.S. legislative progress on the CLARITY Act, softer network activity, and reduced ETF inflow assumptions.
Citigroup analysts led by Alex Saunders lowered the bank's base-case Bitcoin forecast by 22%, from $143,000 to $112,000. Ethereum's 12-month target was also cut from $4,304 to $3,175, a 26% reduction.
The bank pointed to three factors behind the revision. First, U.S. crypto market-structure legislation has stalled in the Senate, with the CLARITY Act's chances of passing in 2026 now estimated at roughly 60%, down from earlier expectations. Disagreements between the banking and crypto industries over stablecoin reward provisions have slowed the bill's progress. Second, Citi reduced its 12-month ETF demand forecast to $10 billion for Bitcoin and $2.5 billion for Ethereum, both below previous assumptions. Third, the bank cited softer on-chain activity metrics as a sign that crypto adoption growth has moderated.
Citigroup's revision stands out because it comes just days after the SEC and CFTC issued joint guidance that classified Bitcoin, Ethereum, and 14 other tokens as digital commodities rather than securities. That framework was widely seen as a positive step for the industry. Yet Citi argues that regulatory clarity from agencies alone is not enough. Without congressional legislation that establishes a full market structure, institutional capital may stay cautious.
The bank outlined a wide range of outcomes. In a bull scenario driven by stronger ETF adoption, Bitcoin could reach $165,000 and Ethereum $4,488. In a bear case tied to recession, Bitcoin could fall to $58,000 and Ethereum to $1,198. The gap between these scenarios highlights how dependent crypto prices remain on macro conditions and policy decisions.
The CLARITY Act's Senate timeline is the key variable. If lawmakers reach an agreement on stablecoin provisions before the summer recess, the legislation could still pass in 2026, potentially unlocking institutional capital flows that Citi's bull case anticipates. Meanwhile, ETF inflow data will be critical. Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.06 billion in weekly inflows for a third straight week, suggesting institutional demand has not vanished despite the lower targets.
Citigroup's revised targets reflect growing uncertainty around U.S. crypto legislation, not a shift in long-term institutional interest. The bank's wide bull-to-bear range, from $58K to $165K, underscores how much depends on whether Washington can deliver a regulatory framework this year.
Wall Street giant Citigroup projects Bitcoin could reach $143,000 within 12 months, citing ETF demand and regulatory tailwinds as key catalysts.
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