Prediction Track Record
This page is our append-only prediction ledger of published price targets, measured honestly, including the parts that do not flatter us.
Free — no account requiredEvery call shown was reconstructed from the dated, git-recorded history of our published analyses (oldest Dec 2025); none has been logged live at publication yet. Cycle-scale targets have not resolved, so here is everything measurable so far.
2,787
Logged predictions
756
Coins covered
Dec 2025
Oldest analysis
2,782
Outcomes scored
550
Resolved so far
2,031
Revised targets
Calibration
Predictions bucketed by the base-case probability we published, against how often the base target has actually been touched. Cells are greyed where the sample is too thin to quote honestly.
Honest caveat: not one prediction has reached its full 12-month horizon yet (the oldest has run 299 days). Only 550 events have settled — every one by an early base-target touch, none by the horizon elapsing. So the rates below are interim lower bounds, not settled calibration.
| Implied probability | Predictions | Mean implied | Base touched | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–20% | 246 | 10.9% | 39.4% | interim |
| 20–40% | 819 | 28.9% | 26.0% | interim |
| 40–60% | 969 | 47.8% | 12.3% | interim |
| 60–80% | 670 | 67.3% | 14.9% | interim |
| 80–100% | 78 | 85.4% | 26.9% | interim |
Resolvability follows the same rule as our backtest job: an event settles only when the horizon fully elapses or the target is touched. Nothing has elapsed yet.
80% interval coverage
n/a
No interval targets logged yet. The legacy-backfill rows carry point targets only; coverage will populate once v5 predictions with 80% bands land.
Bear-case breach vs implied
33.1%
Observed breach frequency
55.3%
Mean implied probability
Horizons are still open, so the observed frequency can only rise from here — read it as a floor, not a verdict.
Target-revision churn
The exhibit we least want to hide. Each row is a coin whose base target we moved repeatedly. This is the before picture — the volatility that motivated the v5.2 scoring rework — published here before anyone else screenshots it.
| Coin | Revisions | Base target range | Spread | Base-target path |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADI Token | 17 (11 distinct) | $2.8 – $7.5 | +168% | |
| Binancecoin | 17 (10 distinct) | $900 – $1,480 | +64% | |
| Uniswap | 16 (13 distinct) | $7.5 – $28.75 | +283% | |
| Polkadot | 16 (12 distinct) | $2.1 – $8 | +281% | |
| THE Open Network | 16 (12 distinct) | $2.25 – $8.5 | +278% | |
| SUI | 16 (12 distinct) | $2 – $6.5 | +225% | |
| Dash | 16 (10 distinct) | $50 – $185 | +270% | |
| Dogecoin | 16 (9 distinct) | $0.2 – $0.35 | +75% | |
| Chainlink | 16 (8 distinct) | $18 – $53.03 | +195% | |
| Litecoin | 16 (8 distinct) | $85 – $163 | +92% | |
| Tezos | 16 (6 distinct) | $0.9645 – $2.34 | +143% | |
| Pudgy Penguins | 16 (6 distinct) | $0.0189 – $0.0369 | +95% |
Spread is the highest published base target over the lowest. The path plots every base value in publication order — a flat line means a stable call, a jagged one means we kept moving the goalposts.
Per-coin ledger
The full revision timeline for the worst churners and the majors, straight from the append-only ledger. Every row is a published call we can never quietly edit.
ADI Token17 revisionsJan 29, 2026 – Jun 25, 2026Bear $0.7Base $5.2Bull $7.8View analysis →
| Published | Bear | Base | Bull | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2026 | $0.85 | $2.8 | $6.5 | 45% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 16, 2026 | $1.2 | $3.5 | $7.5 | 45% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 22, 2026 | $1 | $3.8 | $8.5 | 45% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 9, 2026 | $0.737 | $6.98 | $13.73 | 22% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 8, 2026 | $0.85 | $7.5 | $15 | 25% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 9, 2026 | $0.7 | $7 | $14 | 25% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 10, 2026 | $0.6 | $6 | $12 | 25% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 12, 2026 | $0.5 | $5 | $10 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 13, 2026 | $0.5 | $5 | $10 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 14, 2026 | $0.4 | $5 | $10 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 15, 2026 | $0.4 | $5 | $10 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 17, 2026 | $0.4 | $5 | $10 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 18, 2026 | $0.35 | $4.5 | $9 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 19, 2026 | $0.3 | $4 | $8.5 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 21, 2026 | $0.3 | $4 | $8.5 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Apr 27, 2026 | $0.3 | $4 | $8.5 | 20% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 25, 2026 | $0.7 | $5.2 | $7.8 | 18% | legacy backfill |
Binancecoin17 revisionsDec 10, 2025 – Jun 18, 2026Bear $420Base $900Bull $1,600View analysis →
| Published | Bear | Base | Bull | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 10, 2025 | $550 | $1,050 | $1,600 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $500 | $1,100 | $1,800 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $500 | $1,100 | $1,800 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 29, 2025 | $426.23 | $1,398 | $3,495 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $440 | $1,430 | $3,608 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $440 | $1,430 | $3,608 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 12, 2026 | $440 | $1,430 | $3,608 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 15, 2026 | $470 | $1,480 | $3,876 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 18, 2026 | $470 | $1,480 | $3,876 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 23, 2026 | $475 | $1,200 | $3,750 | 76% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 25, 2026 | $475 | $1,200 | $3,750 | 76% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $475 | $1,100 | $3,250 | 76% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $430 | $950 | $2,600 | 76% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 1, 2026 | $450 | $980 | $2,580 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $256.9 | $1,407 | $2,826 | 62% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 25, 2026 | $450 | $900 | $1,800 | 62% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 18, 2026 | $420 | $900 | $1,600 | 58% | legacy backfill |
Uniswap16 revisionsDec 13, 2025 – Jun 20, 2026Bear $1.5Base $7.5Bull $18View analysis →
| Published | Bear | Base | Bull | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | $3.5 | $12 | $25 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $4 | $10 | $18 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $4.5 | $12 | $20 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 28, 2025 | $3.02 | $28.75 | $71.88 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $2.9 | $8.77 | $69.04 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $2.9 | $8.77 | $69.04 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 13, 2026 | $2.7 | $8.5 | $68.7 | 72% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 17, 2026 | $2.7 | $8.5 | $68.7 | 72% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 20, 2026 | $2.5 | $9.2 | $64.8 | 74% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 27, 2026 | $2.3 | $8.6 | $60.6 | 74% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 6, 2026 | $1.88 | $8.3 | $60.6 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $1.75 | $8 | $56.4 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $2.31 | $10.72 | $23.48 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 26, 2026 | $1.78 | $8.9 | $22.42 | 79% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 27, 2026 | $1.82 | $9.1 | $22.93 | 79% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 20, 2026 | $1.5 | $7.5 | $18 | 63% | legacy backfill |
Polkadot16 revisionsDec 13, 2025 – Jun 20, 2026Bear $0.45Base $2.1Bull $5.25View analysis →
| Published | Bear | Base | Bull | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | $3 | $8 | $20 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $1.58 | $3.5 | $8 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $1.5 | $4.18 | $10.4 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 28, 2025 | $0.92 | $4.71 | $11.78 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 5, 2026 | $1.06 | $5.39 | $13.63 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 12, 2026 | $1.06 | $7.18 | $13.63 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 17, 2026 | $1.04 | $7.18 | $13.31 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 20, 2026 | $1.04 | $5.9 | $12.61 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 27, 2026 | $1.04 | $5.9 | $12.61 | 55% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.92 | $4.8 | $12.61 | 50% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 6, 2026 | $0.92 | $3.02 | $14.04 | 50% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $0.9 | $3 | $9.86 | 50% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 4, 2026 | $0.6 | $7.54 | $18.75 | 48% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 26, 2026 | $0.6 | $3.5 | $12 | 45% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 27, 2026 | $0.5 | $3 | $10 | 40% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 20, 2026 | $0.45 | $2.1 | $5.25 | 38% | legacy backfill |
THE Open Network16 revisionsDec 13, 2025 – Jun 18, 2026Bear $0.75Base $3.75Bull $8View analysis →
| Published | Bear | Base | Bull | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 13, 2025 | $0.8 | $2.5 | $5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $0.8 | $2.25 | $5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $1 | $2.35 | $12 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 28, 2025 | $0.83 | $6.37 | $15.94 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $0.85 | $8.5 | $20.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $1.2 | $4.5 | $11 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 13, 2026 | $1.15 | $4.8 | $11.25 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 17, 2026 | $1.3 | $3.5 | $8.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 20, 2026 | $1.3 | $3.5 | $8.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 26, 2026 | $1.1 | $3.2 | $7.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $1 | $3 | $6.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 6, 2026 | $1 | $3 | $6.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $1 | $3 | $6.5 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 3, 2026 | $0.524 | $3.92 | $8.78 | 62% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 26, 2026 | $0.55 | $3.5 | $8.5 | 58% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 18, 2026 | $0.75 | $3.75 | $8 | 55% | legacy backfill |
SUI16 revisionsDec 11, 2025 – Jun 19, 2026Bear $0.35Base $2Bull $4.5View analysis →
| Published | Bear | Base | Bull | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | $1.1 | $2.85 | $5.5 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $1 | $2.5 | $4.5 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $0.85 | $2.75 | $5.5 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 28, 2025 | $0.72 | $5.88 | $14.69 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $0.72 | $5.88 | $14.69 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $0.72 | $5.88 | $14.69 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 13, 2026 | $0.85 | $6.5 | $18 | 72% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 17, 2026 | $0.75 | $5.5 | $16 | 68% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 20, 2026 | $0.75 | $5.5 | $16 | 68% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 24, 2026 | $0.65 | $5.5 | $16 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 26, 2026 | $0.6 | $5 | $15 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 5, 2026 | $0.6 | $4 | $15 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 19, 2026 | $0.5 | $3.5 | $12 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 3, 2026 | $0.3815 | $2.89 | $6.49 | 48% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 26, 2026 | $0.4 | $3 | $7 | 50% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 19, 2026 | $0.35 | $2 | $4.5 | 45% | legacy backfill |
Bitcoin15 revisionsDec 11, 2025 – Jun 16, 2026Bear $36,000Base $115,000Bull $200,000View analysis →
| Published | Bear | Base | Bull | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | $75,000 | $150,000 | $250,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $70,000 | $180,000 | $250,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $70,000 | $125,000 | $200,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 29, 2025 | $43,773 | $105,055 | $262,638 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $65,000 | $143,000 | $250,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $70,000 | $150,000 | $230,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 12, 2026 | $75,000 | $170,000 | $250,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 15, 2026 | $75,000 | $110,000 | $225,000 | 85% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 23, 2026 | $75,000 | $150,000 | $225,000 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $70,000 | $130,000 | $200,000 | 75% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $55,000 | $120,000 | $185,000 | 65% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 1, 2026 | $50,000 | $130,000 | $175,000 | 70% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $27,939 | $116,295 | $202,556 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 24, 2026 | $35,000 | $120,000 | $200,000 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 16, 2026 | $36,000 | $115,000 | $200,000 | 78% | legacy backfill |
Ethereum15 revisionsDec 11, 2025 – Jun 16, 2026Bear $1,250Base $5,000Bull $10,500View analysis →
| Published | Bear | Base | Bull | Base prob. | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11, 2025 | $2,500 | $7,500 | $15,000 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 21, 2025 | $2,400 | $4,600 | $7,800 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 25, 2025 | $2,400 | $4,400 | $7,200 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Dec 29, 2025 | $1,466 | $7,152 | $17,880 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 3, 2026 | $1,555 | $7,577 | $18,977 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 6, 2026 | $1,500 | $7,500 | $18,300 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 12, 2026 | $1,800 | $6,500 | $15,000 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 15, 2026 | $1,900 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 80% | legacy backfill |
| Jan 23, 2026 | $1,850 | $7,200 | $13,500 | 82% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 3, 2026 | $1,500 | $6,500 | $11,000 | 82% | legacy backfill |
| Feb 18, 2026 | $1,200 | $5,500 | $10,000 | 82% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 1, 2026 | $1,200 | $5,500 | $10,000 | 82% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 2, 2026 | $1,213 | $4,993 | $10,512 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Mar 24, 2026 | $1,250 | $5,000 | $10,500 | 78% | legacy backfill |
| Jun 16, 2026 | $1,250 | $5,000 | $10,500 | 78% | legacy backfill |
About legacy-backfill rows
Every prediction shown so far carries the legacy-backfill engine tag: it was reconstructed from historical analyses to seed the ledger, not emitted by the live v5 scorer. We flag it explicitly rather than blend it in. New predictions land with a versioned engine tag and full 80% intervals.
See the current calls, or get alerted when they change
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